Reds vs. Dodgers Prediction: Skubal, Dodgers Bullpen Loom Large in Series Finale Setup

The Dodgers have already won the series, but Cincinnati’s spoiler mission continues Tuesday night when Nick Lodolo squares off against reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in a pitching mismatch that has the betting market fully bought in on Los Angeles.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers -1.5
• Why: Skubal’s dominant strikeout stuff against a Reds lineup that strikes out at an above-average clip gives Los Angeles control of this game from the jump
• The number to watch: Skubal’s 10.80 K/9 against a Cincinnati order that’s whiffed 97 times over its last 10 games

Cincinnati (69-74) is playing out the string 19 games back in the NL Central, but the Reds have quietly won seven of their last 10 and are riding a two-game winning streak into Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles (86-57), meanwhile, has won five straight and sits atop the NL West as it jockeys with Milwaukee for the best record in the National League.

The Dodgers took Monday’s series opener, and this is now about whether Cincinnati can salvage anything from the set before it heads to Milwaukee for a weekend series that carries far more weight for its own postseason hopes.

Why the Market Isn’t Buying a Reds Upset

The number tells the story here. Los Angeles opened as roughly a -330 favorite on the moneyline with a -1.5 run line priced at close to even money, while the total sits at 8.5. That’s about as lopsided as a run line gets without moving to -2, and it’s a direct reflection of the pitching matchup — Skubal (8-7, 2.86 ERA, 159 strikeouts) against Lodolo (3-3, 5.08 ERA, 69 strikeouts) isn’t close on paper. Lodolo has been solid against the spread as an underdog this season, going 6-6 when Cincinnati has been priced as such in his starts, but this is a tougher ask than most of those outings.

Recent Form

Both clubs enter on winning streaks, but the underlying numbers paint very different pictures of how they’re getting there.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Elly De La Cruz and a Lineup Living on Contact

Cincinnati’s offense is carrying this team lately, and shortstop Elly De La Cruz has been at the center of it — he’s hit .280 with 23 home runs, 66 RBIs and 24 stolen bases on the season, and his combination of power and speed makes him the one Reds bat capable of changing a game on its own against a pitcher like Skubal. The rest of the lineup has scored 5.8 runs per game over its last 10, propelled by Sal Stewart’s 31 homers and a red-hot stretch from Eugenio Suarez, but that production has come largely against non-elite pitching.

The Dodgers counter with a lineup that’s dealt with its own bumps and bruises. Shohei Ohtani only just returned from a four-game absence tied to lingering physical concerns, and Los Angeles is also missing Andy Pages, Edwin Diaz, Roki Sasaki and Kris Bubic to various ailments. None of that seems to matter much against Cincinnati’s rotation — the Dodgers have scored 711 runs as a team this season, tops in the National League, and Freddie Freeman is hitting .301 with a .459 slugging mark that’s made him nearly automatic in the middle of the order.

Skubal has struck out 159 batters in his last 8-7 stretch of starts, and the Reds lineup has whiffed at a top-10 rate in the league over its last 10 games.

That’s the swing-and-miss collision that decides this game. When Skubal is locating his fastball-slider combination, contact-limited lineups have had almost no answer, and Cincinnati’s recent surge has come more from stringing together hits in bunches than from disciplined, deep counts. If Lodolo can’t neutralize Ohtani, Betts and Freeman in the middle innings, the Dodgers’ bullpen depth behind Skubal makes a blowout scenario very much in play.

Still, this Reds team isn’t dead. They’ve scored 19 runs across their last three games and have shown they can hang against playoff-caliber pitching in stretches, especially with De La Cruz seeing his share of pitches to hit. Matt McLain has also found his stroke in bursts, and Jake Bleday has quietly put together a productive summer that’s kept Cincinnati’s lineup from completely collapsing during a lost season.

Los Angeles isn’t just leaning on star power, either. The Dodgers’ bullpen has stabilized since the trade deadline, and manager Dave Roberts has had the luxury of matching relievers to situations rather than scrambling to cover innings — a sharp contrast to a Cincinnati relief corps that’s been forced to soak up extra work behind a rotation still finding its footing down the stretch. That depth advantage compounds whatever damage Skubal does over his first six or seven innings, and it’s a big reason the run line feels safer than a typical -1.5 number against a team that’s actually won its last two games.

Prediction and Best Bet

Skubal’s strikeout upside against a lineup that’s been chasing lately points to a Dodgers win that covers comfortably, even with late lineup uncertainty around Ohtani’s workload. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been shaky too, which opens the door for Los Angeles to pull away in the middle innings if the Reds’ rotation disadvantage compounds early.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 6, Reds 2
2. Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5

Check the live MLB odds before first pitch, since this line has moved throughout the week as the rotation shuffled.