College Football Week 8 Preview: Indiana-Michigan, BYU at UCF, Ole Miss-Texas and Houston-Utah

College football’s biggest Saturday in weeks arrives right after a week of chaos in which five of the top seven teams in the AP poll went down. Miami is the new No. 1 for the first time since 2002, BYU sits at No. 2 after beating Notre Dame and is ranked higher than it has been since 1984, and two ranked-versus-ranked games give the slate real weight. If you only have time for a handful of games, here is a plain-English guide to the four worth clearing your afternoon and evening for, plus what the point spreads mean along the way.

Indiana at Michigan: A Big Ten Bounce-Back Spot

The first big game kicks off at noon ET on FOX at the Big House. No. 6 Indiana is 6-1 and still smarting from a 19-15 loss at Ohio State, a game the Hoosiers were inches from winning. Michigan is 4-2 after a 21-18 win over Penn State, and Kyle Whittingham is hunting a second top-10 win. Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite, which means the Hoosiers need to win by eight or more to cover, and the total is 41.5 points.

That total tells you what to expect: a defensive grind. Michigan’s defense allows the fewest yards per play in the country and just over 16 points per game, and Big Ten opponents are averaging only 18.5 points against Indiana. The wild card is at quarterback, where freshman Tommy Carr is set to make his first career start with Bryce Underwood on the bench. First starts tend to be conservative, with a lot of runs and short throws, which keeps the clock moving and the score low. Indiana should win, but this feels like a one-score game and a tough cover at more than a touchdown.

BYU at UCF: Can No. 2 Handle the Letdown?

At 3:30 ET on FOX, unbeaten BYU heads to Orlando after a 28-24 win over then-No. 8 Notre Dame, sealed by a Bear Bachmeier touchdown pass to Walker Lyons. Bachmeier has more than 1,200 passing yards and nine touchdown throws, plus 284 rushing yards and six rushing scores, so he can beat you with his arm or his legs. BYU is a 6.5-point favorite and the total sits between 42.5 and 43.5 depending on the book.

This is the classic trap game. UCF is 3-3, coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare, and playing at the loud Bounce House. The Knights will start Keyone Jenkins, who is making his fifth start in place of the injured Alonzo Barnett III. BYU is also 6-0 against the spread this season, one of only two teams in the country to cover every game, so the market has been steadily rewarding the Cougars. A streak like that can’t last forever, and a big emotional win followed by a cross-country trip is exactly where it usually breaks.

Ole Miss at Texas: Two Teams Searching for Answers

The prime-time headliner is No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas at 7:30 ET on ABC in Austin, the first meeting between the schools in more than a decade. Texas is a slim home favorite, with lines ranging from -3 to -3.5, and the total is around 53.5 to 54. The Longhorns have lost two straight, close ones to Oklahoma and Florida, and the pressure on Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning is rising.

Ole Miss arrives off a 31-3 win over Missouri that included more than 220 rushing yards, with Kewan Lacy running for 122 yards on 16 carries. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has thrown 14 touchdown passes and ranks in the top 20 nationally in QBR. The matchup comes down to Ole Miss’s offense against a Texas defense that has allowed just four touchdown passes all season. The Longhorns’ biggest concern is the health of edge rusher Colin Simmons, who has a high ankle sprain and is unlikely to play. The Rebels’ defense has also struggled away from home, giving up 35.6 points per game on the road, so this has shootout written all over it.

Houston at Utah: The Late Show With Big 12 Stakes

Night owls get a treat at 10:15 ET on ESPN, with College GameDay in Salt Lake City for No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah. Utah is a 6.5-point home favorite and the total is 56.5, which is the highest on this list. Both teams are among the best offenses in the country, with Utah averaging 40.2 points per game and Houston 39.3, and the winner takes a big step in the Big 12 title race and the College Football Playoff conversation.

Utah’s Devon Dampier and Houston’s Conner Weigman are the quarterbacks to watch, and Weigman ranks fourth nationally in QBR. Houston has been the better team at moving the ball efficiently, but its defense gave up 499 yards in a shootout win over Oklahoma State, while Utah’s defense is among the best in the country at preventing successful plays. Houston is 5-2 to the Over this season, and with two high-powered offenses and a late kickoff, points should be plentiful.

Rest of the Slate and Where to Watch the Odds

Elsewhere, No. 1 Miami hosts Pitt at noon on ESPN as a heavy favorite of about three touchdowns, No. 8 Texas Tech visits Cincinnati at noon on FS1, and No. 11 Tennessee is a rare ranked underdog at South Carolina at 3:30 on ESPN. Odds move all week, so check the live NCAAF odds page before kickoff, and if you are brand new to wagering, the betting calculator is a simple way to see what a bet could pay.

This Week’s Best Bets

With all four games covered, these are the sides and totals that look best based on form, matchups and the current lines. Lines can shift, so shop around.

• Indiana at Michigan: Michigan +7.5 and the Under 41.5
• BYU at UCF: UCF +6.5
• Ole Miss at Texas: Texas -3 and the Over 53.5
• Houston at Utah: Utah -6.5

Expect low scoring early at noon, a possible upset scare for No. 2 BYU in the afternoon, and plenty of fireworks once the lights come on in Austin and Salt Lake City. Please bet responsibly.