3 MLB Pitching Props to Back on October 23: World Series Game 1

The World Series opens tonight at American Family Field, and the entire MLB slate is one game: the Tampa Bay Rays at the Milwaukee Brewers, first pitch at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. With only one game on the board, the pitching props carry a lot of the betting interest, and the matchup between Nick Martinez and Jacob Misiorowski sets up three clear angles worth a look.

The Brewers are roughly -190 favorites with a total of 6.5, which tells you the market expects runs to be scarce. That is exactly the environment where strikeout and outs-recorded props get interesting. Below are three pitching props, with the reasoning laid out so you can decide how much you trust each one.

Jacob Misiorowski Over Strikeouts: Betting the Best Arm in Baseball

Misiorowski led the majors with 252 strikeouts, a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP, and his 37.9% strikeout rate makes any strikeout line look soft on paper. He averaged 8.22 strikeouts per start this season, and his 13.7 K/9 at home matters because tonight’s game is in Milwaukee.

His recent lines have bounced between 6.5 and 8.5 strikeouts, so check your book for tonight’s exact number and price before you bet. The Rays struck out less than any team in baseball this season, so this is not a typical lineup to chase whiffs against. Even so, Misiorowski struck out seven Rays hitters over six innings back on April 1, and his slider and triple-digit fastball generate swings and misses against almost everyone.

The caveat is workload. He has gone Under his strikeout line in eight of his last ten starts, averaging 5.9 strikeouts over that stretch, and in the playoffs he has struck out six in four innings against San Diego and five in 4.1 innings against the Dodgers because long at-bats ran up his pitch count. That makes this the riskiest of the three plays. It is best on a lower number such as 6.5, and best with a smaller stake if the book is hanging 7.5 or higher.

Nick Martinez Under Strikeouts: A Command-First Profile

Martinez is the opposite kind of pitcher. He went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, but he got there with command instead of swing-and-miss. His strikeout rate is just 5.5 per nine innings against a walk rate of only 1.3 per nine, and he averaged about 3.5 strikeouts per start this season, 3.7 over his last ten outings.

The Rays gave Martinez the Game 1 nod over Drew Rasmussen, and his postseason work has been steady but quiet: 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and six strikeouts over nine innings. Books have posted his strikeout numbers at 2.5 to 3.5 in recent starts, so the Under is most appealing if your book is shading the number higher because of the World Series spotlight. Check your book for the current line and juice before you pull the trigger.

His game is built on pounding the strike zone and getting early outs, not chasing punchouts. If he keeps his pitch count efficient, he can work deep without piling up strikeouts, which is exactly what an Under needs.

Misiorowski Under 16.5 Outs Recorded: The Bullpen Is Built for This

This is the prop that best matches how Milwaukee has handled its ace. Misiorowski threw at least 100 pitches in a start just three times all season and logged only 174.2 innings across 30 starts. In his two playoff outings, he threw 88 pitches over four innings against the Padres and 94 pitches for 13 outs against the Dodgers. Neither start came close to 16 outs.

DraftKings has the Under 16.5 outs at -131, which works out to a little over five innings. The Brewers have no reason to stretch him, because their bullpen has a 1.33 ERA in the playoffs and top relievers Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby are rested after a week off. With a day off following Game 2, there is little incentive for the manager to be patient if his pitch count climbs early.

A pitcher who racks up strikeouts also tends to throw a lot of pitches per inning, and that works against his outs total. Against a Rays lineup that makes a lot of contact and fouls off tough pitches, he may not get a clean fifth inning. That is why this Under pairs naturally with the strikeout Over.

Lock These In: Tonight’s Pitching Edge

The thread connecting all three plays is pitch economy. Misiorowski has the stuff to rack up strikeouts but is on a short leash, while Martinez is built to survive on command rather than swing-and-miss. Always shop for the best number, and compare prices with the live MLB odds before you bet.

• Jacob Misiorowski OVER strikeouts (check your book for the line)
• Nick Martinez UNDER strikeouts (check your book for the line)
• Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 16.5 outs recorded (-131 at DraftKings)

If you are new to prop betting, start small, and remember that props can move quickly once lineups are confirmed. Review our responsible gambling page and only wager what you can afford to lose.