Rays vs Brewers Prediction: World Series Game 1 Odds, Pick and Best Bet

Milwaukee gets the best pitcher in the series, Tampa Bay gets the hotter rotation, and one of these two franchises is about to get its first championship either way.

Quick take:

• Pick: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
• Why: A rested Jacob Misiorowski at home against a Rays lineup that has barely hit away from Tropicana Field.
• The number to watch: The Brewers went 24-8 in Misiorowski’s starts this season.

Game 1 of the World Series is Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX at American Family Field, and it is already a historic setup. It is the first time since 1980 that two teams chasing a first title have met in the Fall Classic, and only the second time in the last 116 years.

The Brewers won 103 games, took the NL Central and then swept the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Rays won 98 games and the AL East, then climbed out of a 2-1 hole against Cleveland by taking three straight in the ALCS. Milwaukee has been sitting since closing out Los Angeles on Oct. 15. Tampa Bay has been playing on a much tighter turnaround.

The Market Likes Milwaukee, but the Price Is Not Cheap

Books have the Brewers around -160 on the moneyline, with the Rays sitting near +135, and the total is posted at 6 runs. That works out to roughly a 61 percent implied win probability for Milwaukee, which lines up with how heavily the market is leaning on Misiorowski. The Rays are also a surprise on the other side of the ledger: Tampa Bay announced Nick Martinez, not Drew Rasmussen, as its Game 1 starter, and that choice has helped keep the Rays price from drifting shorter. If you want to shop numbers, the Live MLB Odds page is the quickest place to compare.

Recent Form

Both clubs arrive hot, but the way they got here is different. Milwaukee has done it with run prevention and a bullpen that has been close to untouchable, while Tampa Bay has leaned on starters and late-inning leverage.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why Misiorowski and the Home Park Tilt This Game

Jacob Misiorowski led the majors in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252), WHIP (0.80) and opponent batting average (.157) during the regular season. His postseason has been a little messier. He needed 88 pitches to get through four-plus innings against the Padres and threw 94 in 4 1/3 innings against the Dodgers, as both lineups fouled off pitch after pitch. After the sweep, though, he will be on 11 days of rest, and he has allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of 18 home starts this year.

Tampa Bay was 55-26 at Tropicana Field this season but only 43-38 on the road.

That split matters. The Rays have a .649 OPS this postseason, and outside of Yandy Díaz (.308 with two homers) and Junior Caminero, the lineup has not produced much power. Martinez has been solid on the road in October, allowing three runs over nine innings, and the Rays are 24-9 in games he starts. But it is hard to see Tampa Bay getting much offense against Misiorowski in his own park.

Milwaukee’s bats are not asking for much. William Contreras is hitting .367 in the playoffs, and NLCS MVP Bauers drove in six runs against Los Angeles, including an 11-pitch home run in Game 3 that gave Milwaukee the lead. Jackson Chourio is hitting just .171, which means there is room for upside in the order.

The bullpen is the other edge. Brewers relievers are 7-1 with a 1.33 ERA this postseason, and Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall have combined for 23 1/3 scoreless innings. Tampa Bay has a lockdown closer in Bryan Baker and a perfect 92-0 record when leading after eight innings, so the Rays’ best path is to stay close and steal it late. The Brewers have been the better team at coming back, going 5-1 this postseason when allowing the first run.

The Rays do have a few things going for them. They run well, going 11-for-11 on steals this postseason, and Díaz leads the league with six extra-base hits in October. Pitching is the other strength: Tampa Bay carries a 2.59 team ERA through nine playoff games, and the plan of holding Rasmussen for Game 2 means two strong arms are lined up for the opening weekend in Milwaukee. That is a good reason the series is closer than the futures price suggests.

There are some risks. Rust after a long layoff is real, and Misiorowski has not always been sharp deep into games this October. But the hitting profile of the Rays on the road does not lend itself to punishing a mistake.

Prediction and Best Bet

Milwaukee has the better starter, the better bullpen, home field and the more reliable offense away from the extremes. The price is steep, but this is a game where the favorite deserves to be one.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Tampa Bay Rays 2
2. Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline

The Game 1 winner has gone on to win the World Series 63.6 percent of the time, so a Brewers win here also puts them in the driver’s seat for the title.