3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 23

Friday’s NHL slate is a short one, just two games, but a thin board is a good place to hunt for shots on goal props. Montreal visits Chicago at 8:00 PM ET, and Tampa Bay travels to Colorado at 9:00 PM ET. With only 70 or so skaters in action, the volume shooters stand out quickly.

Shots on goal are one of the friendliest props for newer bettors because you do not need the puck to go in. You just need a player who fires often, gets plenty of ice time, and faces a team that allows a lot of looks. Here are three shooters who check all three boxes tonight.

Cole Caufield Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+102 at FanDuel)

Caufield is the Canadiens’ most active shooter by a wide margin. He has put 32 shots on net through nine games, which works out to roughly 3.56 per game and leads the team. Noah Dobson and Lane Hutson are next at about 2.33 per game, so Montreal’s offense runs through his stick. He also has six goals so far, a sign that the shots he takes are real chances.

His recent log shows how the volume can swing. He had five shots against Buffalo on Oct. 17 and three against San Jose on Tuesday, but he was held without a shot against Washington on Oct. 14. That is the nature of a 3.5 line: it is close to a coin flip on any given night, which is why +102 is a fair price rather than a gift. The matchup is what tilts it. Chicago is allowing 30.6 shots per game, among the most in the NHL, and the Blackhawks have spent more than 42 percent of their season in their own defensive zone. Spencer Knight is expected in net for Chicago and has faced 223 shots in seven starts.

Montreal’s power play has also been slumping, and Caufield has just one power-play point after piling up 29 with the man advantage last season. Chicago’s penalty kill sits at 74.1 percent, so a few extra power-play minutes could be what pushes him over. A public shot model projects him at 3.27 shots with a 62 percent chance of reaching three or more.

Connor Bedard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-152 at FanDuel)

Bedard is the shakiest of the three in terms of sample size, because he only returned on Oct. 13 after offseason shoulder surgery. In three games back he has taken three, three and two shots, and he is playing 19 to 21 minutes a night, which suggests the Blackhawks are not limiting him. He scored a power-play goal on three shots against Winnipeg and sits on the top power-play unit.

The -152 price means the market is already leaning over, so this is more of a floor-and-matchup play than a value hunt. Chicago is at home, and the Canadiens have given up 3.78 goals per game, near the bottom of the league. Montreal’s Jakub Dobes is carrying a .847 save percentage, which gives Chicago every reason to keep shooting. The concern is that the Hawks as a team average only about 21.4 shots per game, the lowest figure in the league, so Bedard has to create his own looks. The projection of 2.88 shots and a 53 percent chance at three or more supports the over, but it is not a lock. Treat it as the most conservative leg of the three.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-128 at FanDuel)

If you want the heaviest volume play on the board, it is MacKinnon. He is averaging 4.40 shots per game this season and has 16 points in 10 games, with six goals and ten assists. His shot totals have been all over the map in October, from eight against Toronto to a single shot at Philadelphia, but he got five against New Jersey on Tuesday and has cleared 3.5 in six of his last ten games.

The same model sees him as the top shooter on the entire slate, with a projection around 3.7 shots and a 69 percent chance of getting to three or more. Tampa Bay sends Andrei Vasilevskiy to the crease, and while he is one of the best goalies in the league, he has a .898 save percentage so far this season. Goalie quality does not change how many shots a player takes, and MacKinnon gets heavy minutes (21 to 25 a night in most games) plus a big share of Colorado’s power play. At -128, you are paying a modest tax for a player who consistently sits above this line.

Lock These In

All three props lean on the same principle: shooters with a clear role, plenty of ice time, and a matchup that favors volume. Lines move throughout the day, so check the live NHL odds and your own book before placing anything.

• Cole Caufield OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+102 at FanDuel)
• Connor Bedard OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-152 at FanDuel)
• Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 shots on goal (-128 at FanDuel)

Caufield offers the best price, MacKinnon the best floor, and Bedard the most cautious pick. Confirm lines and lineups before betting, and play responsibly.