Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Boston Looks to Snap Losing Streak in Toronto

Boston has dropped five straight, and the last three all came against the same team that’s about to see them one more time before the Yankees roll into town.

Quick take:

• Pick: Red Sox -164 moneyline
• Why: Boston gets its best starter of the series matchup while Toronto turns to a struggling Max Scherzer to close it out
• The number to watch: Scherzer’s 7.25 ERA against a Red Sox lineup that’s still scoring 4.4 runs a game even in the middle of a slump

The Red Sox arrive at Rogers Centre on Thursday having lost 2-1, 5-3 and 6-4 in the first three games of this series, extending a losing streak that now sits at five games and has dropped them to 64-56 and 9.0 games back of Tampa Bay in the AL East. Toronto, sitting at 59-63 and 16 games out of first, has nothing left to play for in the standings but everything to play for in pride — and a series sweep of the team that’s supposed to be chasing a playoff spot would be a nice consolation prize.

This is the getaway game of a four-game set, with Boston desperate to avoid the sweep before heading into a stretch that only gets tougher from here.

Why the Market Still Likes Boston Despite the Skid

Books haven’t panicked on the Red Sox despite the five-game slide, based on the MLB odds tracking this game. Boston opened as roughly a -164 favorite on the moneyline with a -1.5 run line at +105, while Toronto sits at +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-125) on the run line. The total is set at 8, with the over at -105 and the under at -115. The pitching matchup is the obvious driver: Payton Tolle takes the ball for Boston at 7-6 with a sharp 3.20 ERA, while Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, who is 1-4 with a 7.25 ERA since returning from a back injury that cost him time earlier this season.

Recent Form

Both team’s underlying form data tells two very different stories heading into Thursday — one club has been unraveling on the road, the other has found its footing at home.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Scherzer’s Struggles Are the Whole Ballgame

Toronto has won this series by grinding out close games — a walk-off, a one-run margin, a four-run comeback — not by blowing anyone out. That formula gets a lot harder to repeat with Scherzer on the mound. The 42-year-old has posted a 7.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his starts this season, a far cry from his Hall of Fame peak, and the Blue Jays are just 2-4 in his six starts this year when they’ve been the moneyline underdog. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been steady if unspectacular for Toronto, hitting .261 with 7 home runs and 46 RBI, but notably hasn’t gone deep at Rogers Centre all season — a trend Boston’s pitching staff would love to keep intact.

Toronto is 2-7 against the spread in Scherzer’s starts this season.

That number matters because it lines up almost perfectly with what Boston needs Thursday: a lineup that’s still capable of scoring in bunches against a pitcher who’s given up plenty of runs all year, even against teams that haven’t hit particularly well lately. Tolle, meanwhile, has been the rock of Boston’s rotation, and his teams are 8-4 straight up when he starts as the favorite.

Boston’s bats have gone quiet during the skid, but the underlying numbers — a .248 team average and 4.43 runs per game on the season — suggest more of a rough stretch than a full collapse.

Prediction and Best Bet

Toronto has earned the benefit of the doubt this series with three straight wins, but pitching matchups decide getaway games more often than momentum does, and this one tilts heavily toward Boston. Tolle gives the Red Sox a real chance to stop the bleeding against a Scherzer who has been hittable all season.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 3
2. Best Bet: Red Sox on the moneyline

Boston’s five-game skid ends with its best starter of the series on the mound — and it’s Toronto’s turn to feel the sting of a series loss.