Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction: Max Fried Faces Shorthanded Pirates Lineup

The Pirates already know what it’s like to lose this series — now they have to face Max Fried with half their lineup on the injured list.

Quick take:

• Pick: Yankees -173
• Why: Max Fried’s 3.21 ERA against a Pittsburgh lineup missing Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Endy Rodríguez, and Spencer Horwitz is too lopsided to fade
• The number to watch: Bubba Chandler’s 55 walks allowed in 94.1 innings (1.45 WHIP)

New York enters this makeup game — originally rained out on July 21 — riding a 6-4 stretch over its last 10 and sitting 56-44, just 1.5 games back in the AL East. Pittsburgh, at 52-49 and 11.5 games out, has quietly put together its best first half since 2015 despite an injury list that reads like a lineup card. This finale at Yankee Stadium already has one result in the books: New York took the series opener 8-5 on July 20, and the Bombers have won five straight meetings between these clubs dating back to last season.

This is technically the third game of the set, even though it plays out like a doubleheader nightcap of sorts given the Tuesday postponement. The Pirates have already seen what New York’s lineup can do when it gets going, and now they have to turn around and face a completely different look on the mound — a crafty left-hander who thrives on soft contact rather than trying to blow hitters away.

Why the Market Isn’t Buying an Upset

Oddsmakers checking MLB odds have the Yankees at -173 with the total sitting at 8.5, and it’s not hard to see why. Fried has been the steadier arm all year at 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA and a sparkling 1.01 WHIP across 61.2 innings, walking just 19 batters compared to Chandler’s 55. Pittsburgh’s rookie right-hander has swing-and-miss stuff — 85 strikeouts in 94.1 innings — but a 4.77 ERA and a habit of putting runners on base has made him homer-prone against lineups with pop, exactly what he’s staring down in the Bronx.

Recent Form

Both clubs arrive with the same 6-4 mark over their last 10 games, but the quality of those wins tells different stories.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Pittsburgh’s Injury Problem Is the Real Story Here

It’s one thing to face Fried on a good day. It’s another to do it while missing catcher Endy Rodríguez (glute strain, targeting a return around July 24), shortstop Konnor Griffin (torn finger tendon, out until early September), center fielder Oneil Cruz (hand fracture, not expected back until early August), and first baseman Spencer Horwitz (hamstring strain, also eyeing a late-July return). That’s four everyday contributors gone from a lineup that was already leaning on Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds to carry the offensive load.

Pittsburgh has managed to stay afloat despite all of it, which says something about the pitching depth GM Ben Cherington has built. But afloat against replacement-level arms is different from afloat against a $218 million rotation piece locating his curveball in Yankee Stadium.

Manager Don Kelly has leaned on a patchwork lineup for weeks now, shuffling in bench pieces at shortstop and behind the plate while hoping the pitching staff can keep games close. It’s worked more often than not — Pittsburgh is still just a game back of .500 for the season — but that margin evaporates fast against a team built to punish mistakes in the strike zone the way New York is.

The Yankees have won five straight games against the Pirates dating back to the 2025 season, outscoring Pittsburgh 35-19 over that stretch.

That trend line matters here. New York’s lineup, even without needing a monster night from Aaron Judge, has enough thump — Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice — to make Chandler’s control issues expensive. Walks in the middle innings against a team that’s 25-22 at home this year and playing with a division race on the line tend to turn into multi-run innings fast.

Fried, for his part, has quietly been what the Yankees paid for. His WHIP sits below 1.05, and he hasn’t needed to strike out the world to be effective — he’s pitching to soft contact and letting a deep infield defense clean up behind him. Against a shorthanded Pirates order, that formula plays even better than usual.

Chandler’s strikeout numbers actually look encouraging on the surface — 85 punchouts is a real total for a rookie logging under 95 innings — but the walk rate undercuts almost everything else he does well. Traffic on the bases against a Yankees order that doesn’t chase much is a recipe for long innings, and long innings against a bullpen that’s already been stretched thin by a taxing first half is how these games get out of hand by the sixth or seventh.

There’s also the ballpark itself to consider. Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field has never needed much help turning fly balls into souvenirs, and a pitcher who works up in the zone as often as Chandler does is walking into one of the least forgiving parks in baseball for that approach. It only takes one mistake pitch to a hitter like Bellinger or Rice to turn a manageable deficit into a laugher.

Prediction and Best Bet

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has kept this team competitive all year, but Wednesday night isn’t the spot for an upset. Fried’s command advantage over Chandler, plus a Yankees lineup that’s had extra runs against Pittsburgh already this series, points to another comfortable New York win.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Yankees 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
2. Best Bet: Yankees on the moneyline

Lay the price and ride Fried — this matchup favors New York in almost every meaningful category.