The NFL season is nearing its halfway point, and the big question on the minds of many fans is: Where did all the scoring go? Team scoring averages are down for the second consecutive season, according to Pro Football Talk. The average NFL team is scoring 21.6 points per game, lower than last year’s total of 23 points per game.
That number itself was a drawdown from 2020’s average of 24.8, so if your fantasy team has been less than stellar you are not alone. Knowing this, we’ll continue to make adjustments to our handicapping strategy for player props in the second half of this season.
Last week’s NFL Sunday player prop best bets went 1-2 with Christian McCaffrey going over his rushing yard total and Adam Thielen only hauling in four of his eight targets to go under his receiving yard total. Tom Brady’s passing yards went under their total to bring us our winning play.
Week 7 brings us a schedule without some of the better teams in the league like the Eagles and Vikings, and we look to find the winning plays among those suiting up this Sunday.
Taylor Heinicke OVER 14.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Heinicke had the best rushing performance of his season last year against Green Bay, racking up 95 yards on 10 carries in a Washington loss. The Packers blitz passers at the fourth-highest rate of all teams in the NFL.
The Pack also has a secondary that has held opposing teams to less than 1,000 passing yards through six games. That’s the lowest passing yard total allowed in the league. Heinicke will be pressured behind a makeshift offensive line and forced to do his own damage on the ground to move the chains.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
McCaffrey has been the most effective pass catcher on this disappointing Carolina Panthers roster in 2022. He trails DJ Moore by a single target for the team lead, and has more receptions and receiving yards than any of his teammates.
Out of Carolina’s 124 pass attempts this season, 43 have gone his way including 29 in the last three weeks alone as the Panthers have rapidly deteriorated offensively. We expect him to surpass 50 receiving yards for the fourth straight week.
Passing TDs Parlay: Marcus Mariota UNDER 0.5, PJ Walker UNDER 0.5, & Trevor Lawrence UNDER 1.5 (+909)
This play gives us some rooting interest in multiple games within the early kickoff window. Mariota has thrown a touchdown in four of six games this season, including two games with multiple scores through the air.
This week, he and the Falcons face a Bengals team that has only allowed five passing touchdowns through six games. This Atlanta team is third in rushing and 29th in passing in 2022. We’ll take them to play to their strengths in Week 7.
Walker left Carolina’s game against the Rams last week with a neck injury, though he has been cleared to play again in Week 7. He managed just 60 passing yards in the Panthers’ Week 6 loss and has his work cut out for him against a top-10 pass defense in Tampa. He may have a short leash when you combine his injury status with his recent performance.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown one combined touchdown across the Jaguars’ last two games. Jacksonville faces a Giants’ passing defense in Week 7 that’s tougher than both their previous matchups with the Texans and Colts. Lawrence may get on the board once but will be contained beyond that.
