The 154th Open Championship comes down to one final round at Royal Birkdale, and Sam Burns has put himself in position to author the story of the tournament. Burns followed a record-tying 8-under 62 on Friday with a 5-under 65 on Saturday, giving him a 36-hole total that stands as the lowest 36-hole score in men’s major championship history. He heads into Sunday at 10-under par, two shots clear of the field, chasing his first career major title.

Burns will play in the final group alongside Ryan Fox, who put together his own record-tying 62 on moving day to climb 50 spots up the leaderboard and into a share of second at 8-under. Si Woo Kim, seeking his first major win, is also at 8-under after a third-round 67. Ryan Gerard sits one shot further back at 7-under, with Lucas Herbert — Thursday and Friday’s co-leader — also in the mix at 7-under.

Betting Odds for the Final Round

Burns opened as the heavy favorite once the third round wrapped, and it shows in the number: DraftKings Sportsbook has him at +142 to close it out. Si Woo Kim, who has the most experience in the final pairing chasing a leader, sits at +465, while Ryan Fox is priced at +780 despite matching Burns for the lowest score of the week just one day earlier.

Behind the top three, the board opens up. Bryson DeChambeau is +1400 after a third-round 69 pushed him to 6-under, Ryan Gerard sits at +1450, and Ludvig Aberg is +1475 following a steady week that has kept him within shouting distance. Lucas Herbert, who still had two holes to play when the leaderboard froze for the night at 7-under, is priced at +1750.

The chasing pack of major champions is longer than the number suggests. Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry and Hideki Matsuyama are all within six shots of the lead, and every one of them has proven they can go low at a major on a Sunday. Scheffler and Fleetwood share odds at +2600, with Rahm at +5200 and Schauffele at +6300.

What’s at Stake for Burns and the Chase Pack

Burns has four PGA Tour wins on his resume but has never closed out a major, and Sunday represents his best chance yet. His putter has carried him all week, and Royal Birkdale’s slick, undulating greens have rewarded exactly the kind of touch he’s shown through 54 holes. The concern for anyone backing him is pace — leading a major by two shots with a red-hot field breathing down his neck is a different pressure than protecting a cushion in a regular Tour event. Bettors looking to get a same-day account down before the final groups tee off can check the DraftKings promo code for a quick sign-up offer.

Fox brings the calm of a player who has already delivered one of the best rounds of his career this week and has nothing to lose. He was eight shots off the pace to start Saturday and played his way into the final group, so there’s little reason to think the moment will rattle him. Si Woo Kim’s positioning is similar — he’s shown he can go low in bunches, carding 65-66-68 across his last three competitive rounds heading into the week, and a fast start Sunday could turn this into a three-way fight down the stretch.

Watch the players in the 4-under group as potential spoilers. Scheffler in particular has made a habit of shooting Sunday charges at majors, and six shots is well within range on a course that’s already yielded a 62 twice this week. If the wind picks up off the Irish Sea, as it often does at Royal Birkdale in the afternoon, the number two shots ahead of the field this morning could look very different by the back nine. For live line movement as tee times approach, our live golf odds page updates in real time.

Prediction and Best Bet

Sam Burns has been the best player at Royal Birkdale for two straight days, and closing leads at major championships tend to hold up more often than not, especially for a player putting this well. The pick here is Burns to get it done, but not comfortably — expect at least one twenty-minute stretch where Fox or Kim draws within a shot.

The safer angle for bettors nervous about a two-shot lead evaporating is Burns top-3, which offers protection if either Fox or Kim catches him down the stretch while still cashing on the player who has looked the most complete all week at Royal Birkdale. New bettors can also lean on our betting calculator to check potential payouts before locking in a final-round wager, and a Caesars promo code is worth a look for anyone shopping a second book for better number on the outright market.