Ohio State QB Julian Sayin Out Indefinitely: What Luke Fahey Means for Buckeyes Title Odds

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm, and head coach Ryan Day confirmed Tuesday that true freshman Luke Fahey will start again in Week 10 against Oregon. Day said the Buckeyes are planning to move forward without Sayin through the postseason, a timeline that has already pushed Ohio State’s national title price well off the top of the board.

Sayin was hurt when he was sacked early in the fourth quarter of Ohio State’s 19-15 win at Indiana on Oct. 17. Day initially said he would miss “several weeks,” but the bye-week update offered no timeline at all. In his first game without Sayin, Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC, and the Buckeyes now sit at 6-2 heading into a pivotal November stretch.

What Luke Fahey Showed in His First Start

Fahey, a true freshman, won the job over highly rated fellow freshman Tavien St. Clair after impressing in practice. His first start was a mixed bag. He finished 21-of-38 for 260 yards and a touchdown without an interception, and added 12 rushing yards on seven carries while taking two sacks. Most of that production came late, as Fahey did not clear 150 passing yards until deep in the fourth quarter. Ohio State did not find the end zone until the final two minutes and finished with a season-low point total.

The offense’s biggest casualty was its explosiveness. Receiver Jeremiah Smith still caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a late touchdown, but his average per catch fell from roughly 19.0 yards entering the game to 8.3 against USC. The defense did not help, allowing a 69-yard touchdown on the second play of the game and a 70-yard catch-and-run to a USC tight end, one week after the Trojans managed just seven points.

Day has said Fahey keeps the job against Oregon, a home game on Nov. 7 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The decision gives the freshman a second chance to build rhythm with Smith, though the St. Clair question will stay alive for anyone watching how Day handles the position down the stretch.

Ohio State Futures and the Market Reaction

The betting market has repriced the Buckeyes in two steps. Through the first seven weeks, Ohio State was a staple near the top of national championship boards. After Sayin went down, BetMGM had the Buckeyes at +500 heading into Week 9, third behind Georgia and Notre Dame, both at +450. After the USC loss, FanDuel’s post-Week 9 board listed Ohio State at +1100, tied with Texas and Alabama and behind Georgia (+350), Notre Dame (+490), Miami (+600), LSU (+800) and Indiana (+1000). Those are two different books, so the numbers are not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but the direction is unmistakable.

The College Football Playoff committee did not soften the blow. In the first rankings released Tuesday night, Ohio State landed at No. 12, its lowest first-release ranking since 2014. As things stand, the Buckeyes would be the first team out of the 12-team field, and with no Group of Five team ranked ahead of them, the highest-ranked Group of Five champion would jump them. Former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said the Buckeyes are on “life support.”

The path back is narrow. CBS Sports projects Ohio State as a No. 7 seed at 11-2 with a loss to undefeated UCLA in the Big Ten title game, but that outcome requires winning out. The remaining schedule is Oregon, Northwestern, a trip to Nebraska and the regular-season finale against Michigan on Nov. 28. With a Week 2 loss at Texas already on the ledger, another regular-season defeat would likely end the at-large case.

Heisman and Big Ten Implications

The quarterback change also reshapes the individual award picture. Smith remained the Heisman favorite in the days before the USC game, but analysts have questioned whether he can sustain that case if his downfield production stays muted. His weekly yardage and yards per catch are now the numbers to track in the Heisman market.

In the conference race, Indiana’s national title price slid to +1000 after a narrow overtime win over an unranked opponent, and the Big Ten, which supplied the past three national champions, no longer looks as dominant on the national board.

For bettors, the key variable is straightforward. Fahey’s second start will show whether the USC performance was a one-game adjustment or a ceiling. Any sign the offense can stretch the field again would change how the market treats Smith and Ohio State’s weekly lines, while another quiet outing would likely push the Buckeyes further down the title board and make the CFP bubble the realistic goal.