Week 8’s Sunday NFL player prop best bets finished a disappointing 1-2, with the only winner being Derrick Henry’s 219-yard explosion against Houston. We narrowly lost out on our passing TD parlay with Aaron Rodgers sinking that bet in the 4th quarter of Sunday Night Football. Jakobi Meyers caught nine passes for 60 yards to go over his projected yardage total of 48.5 in New England’s victory over the Jets.
For Week 9, there are a season-high six teams on a bye week, limiting our options for best bets this week even further. Here are our best bets among those teams suiting up on Sunday.
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Raheem Mostert UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
No team has had more rushing attempts against them this season than the Chicago Bears and they are giving up 5.0 yards per carry to opposing ballcarriers this season. The Bears have also traded away defensive end Robert Quinn and leading tackler Roquan Smith in the last two weeks, leaving them even more vulnerable.
On top of that, Mostert’s backfield mate, Chase Edmonds, was just traded away himself in a deal that landed Bradley Chubb in Miami.
All signs point to a big day for Raheem Mostert, which sportsbooks are always one step ahead of when accepting cash from bettors. This play is intended to fade the public money that will flow in on Mostert’s perceived breakout game in Week 9.
Geno Smith OVER 251.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Seattle’s trip to Arizona this week features two of the top 11 teams in the NFL in scoring this season, with the Seahawks averaging over 26 points per game. Seattle ranks 9th in the league in net yards per pass attempt while Arizona’s pass defense is allowing more net yards per pass than 25 other teams.
Smith has been having the season of his career thus far, ranking 4th in QBR through eight weeks and leading Seattle to the top of the division at the halfway point.
The Cardinals will throw the ball all day, as evidenced by Kyler Murray’s 325 pass attempts through eight games, and Seattle will do the same to keep pace.
Tom Brady OVER 43.5 Passing Attempts
Best Available Odds: None Available At Time of Writing
Brady is averaging 46.5 pass attempts per game over the last six weeks as the Tampa Bay offense has completely shifted away from running the football.
The Bucs are managing just 3.0 yards per rushing attempt, the worst in the NFL, and face an LA Rams front seven that is allowing 4.3 yards per carry themselves this season.
With the entire offense resting on his shoulders, Brady will continue to air it out in a matchup of preseason contenders that find themselves under .500 through eight weeks.
Aaron Jones OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -120 at BetMGM
Jones has re-established himself at the head of the Packers’ running back committee, out-touching AJ Dillon by nearly 10 per game over Green Bay’s last four contests.
Detroit is third-worst in the NFL in terms of opponents’ yards per rush average, and the Packers have begun to shift their offensive focus away from Aaron Rodgers who’s struggled in the first half of 2022.
Look for Jones to reach 15-20 carries in Week 9 and have a great day against an inviting Detroit front seven.
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