Week 10 of the NFL season is a big one, and you do not need to be a stats nerd to enjoy it. Sunday, November 15 brings a game in Munich before most people have finished breakfast, a rookie quarterback making his first start, a veteran passer going back to the stadium where his Achilles gave out, a potential shootout in Texas, and an AFC North showdown on Sunday night. The Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Buccaneers are all on bye, so the rest of the league has the stage to itself. Here is a plain-English guide to the four games worth circling, with the odds explained along the way.

Kirk Cousins Returns to Lambeau as the Vikings Take On the Packers

This is the kind of storyline that writes itself. Minnesota (6-2) heads to Lambeau Field to face Green Bay (6-3) at 1 p.m. ET on FOX, and the Vikings will do it with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. The 38-year-old was traded from Las Vegas to Minnesota just ahead of the deadline and practiced fully Thursday and Friday, with coach Kevin O’Connell confirming he will start. It will be his first start for the Vikings since October 2023, when he tore his Achilles in Green Bay. Kyler Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury, so Carson Wentz will be the backup.

If you are new to betting lines, here is how to read this one. The Packers are favored by about 2.5 to 3 points depending on the sportsbook, which means Green Bay needs to win by at least that margin to cover. The total, or over/under, sits around 42.5 points, a low number that points to a grinder rather than a track meet. The moneyline has Green Bay around -150, meaning you would risk roughly $150 to win $100 on the Packers, while Minnesota pays around +130.

The injury list matters more than usual. Minnesota will be without tight end T.J. Hockenson and receiver Jauan Jennings, and receiver Jordan Addison is questionable with a thumb issue. The Vikings were also held to six points in a loss to Buffalo on Monday night, so the offense has something to prove. Green Bay will be missing running back Josh Jacobs (finger) and lineman Sean Rhyan, but the Packers scored 45 against New England earlier this season and are 6-3 at home in a tight NFC North race. Minnesota did win the first meeting 39-22 in the season opener. A new quarterback with a short week and a thin set of targets is a tough ask on the road, and the lean here is Green Bay at home, with the under a sensible side given the offensive injuries.

Mendoza Makes His First Start Against the Defending Champion Seahawks

Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, takes over as the Raiders’ starting quarterback after Las Vegas shipped Cousins to Minnesota. The 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS pits him against Seattle (5-4), a team that has been looking for momentum in a crowded NFC West. Mendoza has thrown just 48 passing yards in limited action this year, so everything about Sunday is new. He will also face a familiar name on the other sideline, since Seattle knows Raiders offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak well from his time as the Seahawks’ play-caller.

Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite, with a moneyline around -298 for the Seahawks and +240 for Las Vegas. The total is 40.5 points, and it has dropped about three points since the opening number of 43.5. When a total falls that much, it usually means bettors expect fewer points because of the quarterback situations. The line also moved toward the Raiders, shrinking from the opening 7 to 6.5.

The Seahawks have their own quarterback wrinkle. Sam Darnold is out with rib and quad injuries, so Drew Lock is expected to start, though he was limited in practice with oblique and elbow issues and was listed as questionable earlier in the week. Seattle’s defense is the real strength, and a rookie making his first start against one of the league’s best pass defenses is a recipe for mistakes. The pick is Seattle to win, but 6.5 is a lot of points in a game with two shaky offenses, so the under is the cleaner way to play it.

49ers at Cowboys Has the Highest Total on the Board

If you want points, this is your game. San Francisco (7-1) visits Dallas (4-5) at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX, and the total is set at 55.5 to 56 points, the highest of the Sunday slate. The 49ers are favored by about 3.5 to 4 points, with moneylines around -205 to -220 for San Francisco and +170 to +180 for Dallas. That means the books see Dallas as live enough to keep it close, but not quite the favorite to win.

San Francisco has been the more reliable team, winning five of its last six, and the defense has started to come together, forcing five turnovers in a 38-17 win over the Raiders last week. The caution is health: the Niners have dealt with injuries to Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, and Christian Kirk landed on injured reserve. Dallas survived Indianapolis 27-23 last week despite 14 penalties, and the Cowboys have covered the spread only once in their last five games. Dak Prescott at home is always capable of a big day, but the Niners have the better record and the better point differential. San Francisco is the pick to win, and because of the injury concerns, some bettors are looking at the under despite the huge total.

Steelers at Bengals Headlines Sunday Night Football

The nightcap at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock is a true division showdown. Pittsburgh (6-2) and Cincinnati (6-2) are tied atop the AFC North, so the winner takes sole possession of first place. The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites at home, with a moneyline of -180 for Cincinnati and +150 for Pittsburgh. The total is 49.5, up from an opening number of 47.5.

The first meeting was a thriller. Pittsburgh won 30-27 as a home underdog, covering the 3.5 points and sailing over a total of 42.5. This time oddsmakers have raised the total by seven points, which tells you how much faith they have in both offenses. Joe Burrow is having an MVP-caliber season, leading the league in completion percentage at 74%, and he went 24-of-29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns last week. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are coming off a bye after a 27-6 win over Cleveland, and Pittsburgh has historically played well after a break. Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup, so Cincinnati knows what he can do. Bye-week rust is a fair worry for Pittsburgh, and Burrow is the hotter hand. The lean is Cincinnati to win, with the under 49.5 a popular contrarian angle if the Steelers start slow.

This Week’s Best Bets

Here is where the analysis lands across the four featured games. Odds move throughout the week, so check your sportsbook for the current number before placing anything, and only bet what you can afford to lose.

The rest of the slate has plenty to like too, including Bills at Jets, Chiefs at Falcons and Jaguars at Titans. If you are just looking for a way to enjoy a full Sunday of football, start with the early game in Munich and work your way through to the Sunday night finale.