Mets vs. Reds Prediction and Best Bet: Can Chase Burns Keep Dominating?
The New York Mets head to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Monday evening for the opener of a three-game series against the Reds, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Both clubs sit near the bottom of their respective divisions, each fighting for relevance in a season that has not gone according to plan. But while the standings may not dazzle, this game has a compelling storyline at its center — Chase Burns, one of the young pitchers making the biggest leap in baseball in 2026, takes the mound for Cincinnati against a Mets team trying to keep its season from fully unraveling.
The Mets arrive at 32-39, fifth in the NL East, with several key contributors on the injured list. New York is 14-21 away from Citi Field and has gone 6-4 over its last ten games — a modest bright spot in what has otherwise been a disappointing campaign. The Reds (33-37) are not much better in the standings, fifth in the NL Central, though they have shown some competitive edge at home where they sit at 17-18 on the season.
Odds Back Cincinnati’s Dominant Young Ace
The bookmakers installed Cincinnati as a meaningful favorite in this one, and the reason is obvious when you look at the pitching matchup. The Reds open at -143 on the moneyline with the Mets at +119. On the run line, New York gets +1.5 at -181 while Cincinnati sits at -1.5 at +149. The total is set at 8.0 runs with the over at -114 and the under at -105. You can track real-time line movement on this game at our live MLB odds page throughout the day.
[game_center league=”mlb” teama=”NYM” teamb=”CIN” date=”20260615″]
Chase Burns has been everything the Reds could have hoped for in his first full season as a rotation anchor, and then some. This matchup sets up as a stark contrast between a pitcher locked in and one still searching for consistency.
Chase Burns Is Building a Case as the NL’s Best Young Arm
Selected second overall in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Wake Forest, Chase Burns was never expected to wait long before making an impact. What no one quite anticipated was this: a 7-1 record, a 2.14 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts through 75.2 innings over 13 starts at age 23. His strikeout rate is exceptional at 29.6%, and he has meaningfully reduced the hard contact he allowed in his 2025 debut — his hard-hit rate has dropped from 45.7% to 38.4%, and his average exit velocity allowed has also declined. These are not the surface-level improvements of a pitcher getting lucky with defense or sequencing. Burns is actively improving his pitch mix and command, and his 0.99 WHIP through 13 starts is the kind of elite marker that shows up in Cy Young consideration, not just fantasy waiver wires.
His recent outings have continued the pattern. In his last start at San Diego on June 9, Burns struck out seven over 5.1 innings and allowed two earned runs in what was ultimately a Reds win. The start before that, he fanned nine Kansas City batters in six innings while surrendering just two earned runs. In late May, he held this same Mets lineup to two earned runs in 5.1 innings at Citi Field, striking out eight and giving New York a 7-2 loss for the trouble. The Mets have already seen Burns once this season, and that outing offers little reason for optimism on a second attempt.
Tobias Myers gets the ball for New York. Myers is working with a 4.05 ERA in limited appearances this season, and while the numbers are passable, this is not a favorable spot for him against a team with home-field advantage and a motivated fan base. The Reds have struggled as a unit over the last ten games, going 3-7, but that team-level slump has barely registered in Burns’ individual outings — his consistency is one of the season’s genuine constants. Before locking in your picks, check out the BetMGM promo code for up to $250 in bonus bets on tonight’s game.
Mets Injury Trouble Leaves the Lineup Severely Shorthanded
The Mets are dealing with a wave of injuries that has hollowed out key parts of their roster heading into this series. Francisco Lindor (calf, 10-day IL), Jorge Polanco (wrist, 10-day IL), Tyrone Taylor (hip, 10-day IL), and Ronny Mauricio (thumb, 10-day IL) are all unavailable, forcing manager Carlos Mendoza to patch together a lineup missing its normal configuration. Kodai Senga is sidelined with a spinal issue, and Clay Holmes (60-day IL, fibula) is unavailable out of the bullpen, further limiting New York’s options.
The brightest spot for New York remains Juan Soto, who continues to produce at an elite level regardless of the chaos around him. Soto is hitting .287 with 15 home runs, 32 RBI, and a .937 OPS — numbers that place him among the NL’s best hitters. He has been particularly hot in recent weeks, going deep in back-to-back games and slashing .301/.392/.594 over a recent 39-game stretch. The problem is that Burns’ elite strikeout rates and low barrel percentage suggest he is not the type of pitcher even great hitters routinely solve in a single outing. The FanDuel promo code gets new bettors bonus bets for their first wager if New York’s value at +119 appeals to you.
For Cincinnati, the big injury news is Elly De La Cruz, who is on the 10-day IL with a hamstring injury. The electrifying shortstop was slashing .280/.346/.509 with 12 homers and 37 RBI before going down, and his absence is a real blow to the Reds’ offensive ceiling. Ke’Bryan Hayes (back, 10-day IL) is also unavailable. Still, the lineup has enough around the edges to generate three or four runs against a shaky Mets starter, which is likely all Burns needs to come away with his eighth win of the season.
In the three head-to-head meetings between these clubs in 2026, each team has won and lost, with the home team winning each time. The Reds won two of three when these teams met in late May, including a 7-2 blowout in Cincinnati on May 26. At home, the Reds are 17-18 — not dominant, but a club that protects the diamond in front of Burns. Comparing options before betting? Our DraftKings promo code provides bonus bets on any MLB game tonight.
Prediction and Best Bet
Chase Burns against a shorthanded Mets lineup is one of the cleaner setup spots of Monday’s slate. Burns has already held this Mets club in check once, several key New York bats are unavailable, and Cincinnati has been solid enough at home to give their ace the win when he is pitching this well. The Reds moneyline at -143 reflects sound value given the gap between the two starters.
- Prediction: Reds 5, Mets 2
- Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-143)
Burns is pitching well enough to carry this team on nights when the offense is limited, and the home environment at Great American Ball Park suits his contact-limiting profile perfectly. Betting the Reds to win outright at -143 is a fair price for a pitcher who is 7-1 with a sub-2.20 ERA and one of the lowest WHIPs among qualified NL starters in 2026.
Aaron White
Sports Betting Contributor
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. His industry experience includes projects for the Chicago Cubs, The Sporting News, and QL Gaming Group. At Hello Rookie, he covers the NFL and NBA from a betting and DFS perspective.
