Guardians vs. Rays Prediction: ALCS Game 6 Picks, Odds and Best Bet (Oct. 19)

The Guardians have to beat the best home team in the American League twice in a row, starting with a bullpen game against a pitcher who hasn’t allowed an earned run in this series.

Quick take:

• Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
• Why: Freddy Peralta has been nearly untouchable at Tropicana Field, and Cleveland is turning to a patchwork bullpen with its season on the line.
• The number to watch: 0.99 ERA for Peralta in five home starts since late August

Tampa Bay (98-64) took Game 5 in Cleveland, 3-1, behind seven strong innings from Drew Rasmussen and now sits one win from the World Series. The Milwaukee Brewers, who swept the Dodgers in the NLCS, are waiting.

Cleveland (85-77) has been here before. The Guardians fell behind 0-2 against the White Sox in the ALDS and still came out the other side. Manager Stephen Vogt said his group thrives with its back against the wall, but Game 6 comes with no off day, a bullpen game on the schedule, and a Rays lineup that is finally waking up.

Rays Are Favored, but the Price Isn’t Scary

The Rays opened around -130 and had moved to roughly -143 at DraftKings by Sunday night, with Cleveland sitting near +119 and the total at 6.5. That is a modest price for a team that went 55-26 at home during the regular season and has the more settled pitching plan. The shorter closing moneyline has won four of the five games in this series, with Cleveland’s Game 1 win at +145 the lone exception, so the market has been reading this matchup fairly well.

Check how the books are pricing the game right now before you lock anything in, and shop around on live MLB odds for the best number on Tampa Bay.

Recent Form

Both clubs arrive with a lot of October miles on them, and the numbers below show how each has played lately and how these two have fared against each other.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Peralta at Home Versus a Bullpen Shuffle

Freddy Peralta is the reason Tampa Bay is the right side. Since August 26 he is 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA across nine appearances, eight of them starts. At Tropicana Field specifically, he has made five starts in that stretch with 26 strikeouts against eight walks and a 0.99 ERA. In Game 2 he threw six scoreless innings on 99 pitches, striking out six, and he only needed nine pitches to get two outs in relief in Game 4, so there is no workload concern.

Peralta has a 0.99 ERA in five starts at Tropicana Field since the end of August, and he has yet to give up an earned run in 6 2/3 ALCS innings.

Cleveland doesn’t have an answer like that. Gavin Williams is ruled out on short rest after his velocity dipped in the fifth inning of Game 3, and Parker Messick lasted only two innings in Game 5. Expect a bullpen game, with Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee all in play, none of whom pitched on Sunday. The Guardians’ relievers have been good, with Hunter Gaddis scoreless in 7 2/3 postseason innings, but stringing together nine innings of matchup-based pitching on one day of recovery for several arms is a tall order.

The Rays’ lineup is trending the right way, too. Yandy Díaz leads both teams with eight hits in the series, and he and Jonathan Aranda each collected five hits over the last two games. Junior Caminero, who hit 42 home runs this season, has struck out 11 times in 20 at-bats, but one swing from him can change a game. Díaz even guaranteed a win after Game 5.

On the other side, José Ramírez (7 for 19) and rookie Chase DeLauter (6 for 17 with a homer and four RBIs) have carried Cleveland’s offense, but Cleveland has scored just one run in two of its three losses. Cleveland hit .225 for the postseason, and Tampa Bay’s pitching staff owns a 2.54 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in the playoffs. Closer Bryan Baker has finished all six of the Rays’ postseason wins, and Tampa Bay’s bullpen is rested enough to be fully available.

The one thing that keeps this from being a runaway: these teams are built almost identically, with pitching, defense and just enough offense. Only one game in the series has been decided by a single run, but a 6.5 total says the market expects a low-scoring game.

Prediction and Best Bet

Tampa Bay has the better starter by a wide margin, the home crowd, and a bullpen that is fresher than Cleveland’s. The Guardians will fight, and a win here is not out of the question, but the more likely outcome is a tight, low-scoring Rays win that sends them to Milwaukee. If you want a full list of books to bet it with, see our sportsbook reviews.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Rays 4, Guardians 2
2. Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline

Peralta at home is the safest edge on the board, and at roughly -140, the Rays are worth backing to close it out.