3 Quarterback Props to Back for Commanders vs. 49ers on MNF

Monday Night Football brings an unbeaten San Francisco 49ers team (5-0) home to Levi’s Stadium to face the Washington Commanders (1-3-1) at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN and ABC. San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite and the total is sitting around 50.5 to 52.5, which puts both quarterbacks front and center in the prop market.

If you are new to player props, quarterback passing yards are one of the easiest places to start. The bet is simple: will a passer throw for more or fewer yards than the number the sportsbook sets? Below are three quarterback props worth a look, built on recent form, matchup and game script. Always check your own book for the current number before you bet.

Jayden Daniels Over 203.5 Passing Yards

Jayden Daniels is back after missing time with a dislocated left elbow suffered in Week 2, and he looked like himself in his return against the Giants: 17-of-25 for 199 yards, plus nine carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-27 tie. Washington still finished with a tie it will want back.

The setup on Monday night points toward more throws. Washington is a touchdown-plus underdog, and the Commanders have run the eighth-most plays in the NFL this season at 60.6 per game. San Francisco’s defense has also been a pass funnel, inducing the 10th-most pass attempts per game (37.4) from opposing quarterbacks. One projection model has Daniels at roughly 221 passing yards, comfortably above a 203.5 line that is available at -115 at some books. Other books are a few yards higher (206.5 at -135 at one), so shop around.

There are risks. Stefon Diggs is questionable with a hamstring issue, Daniels is wearing a brace, and the 49ers rarely give up big plays over the top. But a trailing team that needs to move the ball through the air usually clears this number.

Brock Purdy Over 248.5 Passing Yards

Brock Purdy has been one of the league’s most efficient passers through five games. He is completing 69 percent of his throws (98 of 142) for 1,196 yards, 13 touchdowns (the most in the league) and just two interceptions. His 8.4 yards per attempt ranks among the top handful of qualified quarterbacks, and his 2.1 percent sack rate is the lowest of anyone qualified.

The matchup is a friendly one. Washington is allowing roughly 255 passing yards per game, the 29th-ranked mark in the league, and sits 26th in pass DVOA. Purdy’s passing totals bounce around from book to book (anywhere from 245.5 to 251.5), with 248.5 being a common number, so line shopping matters here.

The worry is blowout game script. Last week against Seattle he threw for just 189 yards (19-of-29, two touchdowns, one interception), and a big lead could mean more handoffs to Christian McCaffrey in the second half. San Francisco is also thin at receiver: Deebo Samuel is out and Mike Evans, who caught seven passes for 113 yards and a touchdown last week, is questionable after missing practice. Still, George Kittle (268 yards and four touchdowns on 21 catches) and McCaffrey in the passing game give Purdy enough to work with, and he has already hit 297 yards once this season, in Week 3 against Arizona.

Brock Purdy 20+ Rushing Yards

This one is a separate bet from the passing prop, and it is the most intriguing number on the board. Purdy has quietly added a real rushing element this season: 128 yards through five games, including 29 or more yards in each of the four games where he cleared his rushing total. He is 4-1 against that number on the year.

The matchup helps. Washington has allowed 19.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the seventh-highest mark in the league, and Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts all set season-highs on the ground against this defense. One projection model has Purdy at about 29 yards on 5.5 carries. Books list his rushing total anywhere from 14.5 to 19.5 depending on the shop, so look for a 20+ yard line or an alternate that gets you close to that mark, and compare the price before you commit.

Our Quarterback Prop Picks for Commanders at 49ers

Both quarterbacks have paths to productive nights, and the numbers back all three plays. Here is the full card, with the lines referenced above and prices that may have moved since publication:

• Jayden Daniels OVER 203.5 passing yards (-115)
• Brock Purdy OVER 248.5 passing yards (-115)
• Brock Purdy 20+ rushing yards (check your book for the price)

Daniels gets the volume boost from playing from behind, Purdy gets a soft Washington secondary, and his legs add a second way to cash. For more lines on the night, see the live NFL odds, and if you are looking for a place to bet, our DraftKings promo code page has the latest offer. Please bet responsibly.