Dream vs Valkyries Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 2 Picks and Best Bet

Atlanta shot 33 percent, lost the fourth quarter 17-8, and still had a look to tie Game 1, which tells you exactly how close the Dream are to flipping this WNBA Finals.

Quick take:

• Pick: Atlanta Dream +2.5
• Why: Atlanta held Golden State to 32 percent shooting and 10 turnovers forced, and still only lost by four, so the Dream already did the hard part.
• The number to watch: 7-of-33, the Valkyries’ three-point line in Game 1, a mark they are unlikely to repeat.

The Golden State Valkyries lead the best-of-seven series 1-0 after winning the first Finals game in franchise history, and Game 2 returns to Chase Center in San Francisco on Monday night at 8:00 p.m. ET on USA Network. The No. 2 seed finished the regular season 32-12 and has been dominant at home. Atlanta, the No. 4 seed, is 30-14 and came in riding a five-game postseason winning streak after sweeping the New York Liberty.

That streak is over. The Dream led 22-14 after one quarter, carried a five-point lead into the fourth, and then scored just eight points the rest of the way.

A Tight Spread Says the Market Sees a Coin Flip

Golden State is a small favorite again, sitting at -2.5 with a total near 151.5 and a moneyline around -135 against Atlanta’s +114. That is a notable number given how Game 1 played out. The Dream had the better looks for most of three quarters, and the market is telling you home court is worth about three points and not much more. When a team that missed its last handful of shots in crunch time is getting points in a series where its offense ranks third in the league, that is where value tends to hide. For anyone tracking the broader live sports betting odds, this is one of the tightest Finals lines of the postseason.

Recent Form

Both teams arrived having swept their semifinal opponents, but the shape of those runs was very different, and the form and head-to-head data below show how each team has been winning.

Showing 7 of last 10 meetings

Defense Versus Firepower, and Who Blinks First

This series is a clean clash of styles. Golden State owns the league’s best defensive rating at 100.6 but ranks 13th in scoring at 82.2 points per game. Atlanta scores 91.3 per night, third in the league, and has the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA at 104.5. The Valkyries also swept the regular-season series 3-0, with all of those meetings coming down to late possessions.

Game 1 followed the script. Gabby Williams scored 16 of her 26 points in the second quarter, hit six late free throws, and was the only Valkyrie to reach double figures. Golden State shot 32 percent overall and went 7-of-33 from three, yet won because Atlanta went scoreless over the final 3:12.

Atlanta forced 10 turnovers, held Golden State to 21 percent from deep, and still lost, which means the Dream already did the hard part of beating this team.

The Dream’s problem was the offense drying up. Angel Reese scored 11 points in the first quarter on 5-of-6 shooting, then went 0-for-5 from the field the rest of the way and finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds. Allisha Gray, back from a left hand injury, led Atlanta with 19 points on 5-of-19 shooting but went a perfect 8-of-8 at the line. She missed a three with nine seconds left that could have tied it.

Jordin Canada gave the Dream eight points, seven assists and five rebounds, and Rhyne Howard remains the shot-maker who can swing a game. Atlanta is also without Brionna Jones, who was ruled out for the season in September.

On the Golden State side, Veronica Burton, Kayla Thornton and Tiffany Hayes are all capable of heating up, and the bench added 20 points in Game 1. The concern is a shortage of reliable secondary scoring when Williams is not efficient, and she needed 22 shots to get her 26.

The adjustment for Atlanta is simple: get Reese touches early and often. She was a force in the first quarter when she got the ball in the right spots, and the offense stalled the moment she became an afterthought. Expect head coach Karl Smesko to fix that. If you plan to back either side this week, the DraftKings promo code is one of the stronger welcome offers out there.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State’s defense is real and Chase Center is a legitimate edge, but the Valkyries cannot count on shooting 21 percent from three again and still escaping, and Atlanta’s offense will not stay this cold. This should be another one-possession game, which makes the points the right side.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Valkyries 70, Dream 68
2. Best Bet: Atlanta Dream +2.5

Atlanta already proved it can lead this team for three quarters in San Francisco, and in a defensive series with a total near 151, taking the points is the smart play.