Florida State at Duke: 3 Player Props and Best Bet for Friday, October 18

A tale of two teams heading in opposite directions unfolds Friday night in the ACC as the Florida State Seminoles (1-5) head north to face the Duke Blue Devils (5-1) in Friday’s premier college football contest.

Florida State entered the season with dreams of making the college football playoffs after being snubbed last season. Those dreams eroded quickly as the Seminoles dropped three straight to open the year and have fallen twice more in the first half of the season.

Duke is trending in the right direction under head coach Manny Diaz in his first season. After starting the season an unblemished 5-0, the Blue Devils dropped a close contest on the road against Georgia Tech to upend their chances of being ranked heading into this matchup.

Will the Seminoles be on the warpath Friday night, or will the Blue Devils continue to torrid start to the season? We’ll cover that and our three top player prop bets below.

Duke Blue Devils QB Maalik Murphy OVER 210.5 Passing Yards

Sophomore quarterback Maalik Murphy was called into action a season earlier than many expected after Riley Leonard left Duke for Notre Dame this offseason. Despite his youth, Murphy is putting together a solid performance this season for the Blue Devils.

The 6-foot-5 signal-caller has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his first six outings, racking up 1,431 passing yards by completing over 60 percent of his passes. Offensively, Duke has run for only 731 yards through its first six games, averaging just over 120 yards per outing without Murphy’s negative totals.

On the other side of the field, Florida State is bad at stopping their opponents. The Seminoles have allowed over 400 total yards of offense during their past three games, including their win over Cal. Expect Murphy to easily surpass the passing-yards player prop bet on Friday night.

Florida State Seminoles RB Lawrance Toafili OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards

The sledding has been rough this season for Florida State running back Lawrance Toafili. In his senior season, Toafili has been held in check in four of the six games the Seminoles have played, logging 32 yards or fewer in those contests.

Fortunately for him, Duke hasn’t stopped opponents’ running attacks this season. The Blue Devils have allowed at least 132 rushing yards to every FBS opponent it has faced this season, including a whopping 245-yard performance for Georiga Tech two weeks ago.

With the Blue Devils being down-right bad against the run, expect the Seminoles to exploit that facet of their defense. Their ability to get Toafili his touches this game will lead to the player easily covering this player prop bet.

Duke Blue Devils WR Eli Pancol OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards

While Murphy’s top target on the season is wide receiver Jordan Moore, the Blue Devils would not be 5-1 without the efforts of senior receiver Eli Pancol this season. The 6-foot-3 pass-catcher has hauled in 23 receptions for 294 yards and five touchdowns in 2024.

Excluding the blowout victory over Middle Tennessee, Pancol has been held under this player prop bet mark just once this year. Expect him to easily surpass the 36-yard receiving mark on Friday night to cover his prop bet.

Best Bet: Duke (-3.5)

This isn’t the Florida State teams you’re used to seeing in the past under head coach Mike Norvell. In fact, this edition really harkens back to the teams that former coach Willie Taggart put together in his time at FSU before the Seminoles fired him midway through 2019.

Duke has shown its resilience this season, winning against North Carolina despite trailing 20-0 midway through the third quarter before mounting their one-point, comeback win. The Blue Devils face one of the ACC’s worst defenses tonight, giving bettors confidence they’ll score early and often while winning this conference matchup.