DraftKings Prediction Markets Could Generate $1 Billion in Revenue by 2030, Wall Street Analysts Project

Wall Street analysts have put a number on the long-term revenue opportunity in prediction markets, projecting that DraftKings Predictions alone could generate approximately $1 billion annually by 2030 if the platform achieves a 20 to 30 percent share of activity across its active states.

The projection came in a research note published June 19, 2026 by analysts Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin, based on early platform activity and comparisons to the broader prediction market industry as it scales. The note represents one of the more detailed Wall Street assessments of prediction market economics to date, arriving as record World Cup trading volumes are demonstrating what the category can produce at peak demand.

The Logic Behind the $1 Billion Figure

The analysts’ 20 to 30 percent market share assumption is the critical variable in the projection. DraftKings operates one of the two largest sportsbook brands in the United States, alongside FanDuel, and the two platforms together account for roughly 70 percent of U.S. sportsbook gross gaming revenue, with FanDuel holding approximately 36 percent market share.

If that brand recognition and customer base translates to the prediction market category at a similar rate, a 20 to 30 percent share of a maturing prediction market industry is a reasonable baseline assumption. The projection essentially treats prediction markets as a new product vertical where DraftKings can replicate a version of its sportsbook success.

The total market implied by the projection is significant. A $1 billion DraftKings number at 20 to 30 percent share implies a total U.S. prediction market industry generating $3.3 to $5 billion annually by 2030, a figure that would make prediction markets a substantial portion of overall sports wagering revenue in the country.

DraftKings’ Prediction Market Strategy

DraftKings Predictions has been expanding its sports event contract offerings and has partnered with Crypto.com to offer parlay-style combination products that allow traders to link multiple outcomes in a single contract. The combination product direction mirrors what traditional sportsbooks have done with parlay betting, which has become one of the highest-margin product categories in the industry.

The structural advantage that prediction markets offer DraftKings is addressable market size. Traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook can only operate in states that have legalized sports betting, currently approximately 38 states. Prediction market platforms regulated by the CFTC are available in all 50 states plus Washington D.C., meaning DraftKings Predictions can acquire customers and generate revenue in states where the core sportsbook cannot operate.

That nationwide access is the primary driver of the bullish analyst outlook. A $1 billion prediction market revenue stream for DraftKings by 2030 would represent a meaningful addition on top of its existing sportsbook business rather than a replacement for it.

What World Cup Data Shows About User Behavior

DraftKings’ World Cup data reveals an interesting split between its sportsbook and prediction market user bases. The most-bet matches on DraftKings Sportsbook during the tournament were USA vs Paraguay, USA vs Australia, Brazil vs Morocco, Mexico vs South Korea, and Germany vs Ivory Coast. The most-traded contracts on DraftKings Predictions were Germany vs Ivory Coast, Mexico vs South Korea, USA vs Paraguay, New Zealand vs Egypt, and Turkey vs Paraguay.

Three matches appear on both lists, but the composition differs enough to suggest that prediction market traders are not simply sportsbook bettors using a different interface. New Zealand vs Egypt and Turkey vs Paraguay appeared in the top five on DraftKings Predictions without cracking the sportsbook top five, indicating that some prediction market users are engaging with different matches than the casual sportsbook user base gravitates toward.

That behavioral distinction matters for the revenue projection because it suggests prediction markets may be capturing incremental engagement rather than just cannibalizing existing sportsbook activity, which would support a more additive long-term revenue outlook.

The Broader Context for the Projection

The $1 billion projection for DraftKings Predictions by 2030 arrives during a period of intense regulatory and competitive activity across the prediction market industry. The CFTC is running a comment period on sports event contract rules that closes July 27, and Congress is advancing legislation on prediction market trading by lawmakers. Both processes will shape the regulatory environment in which prediction markets operate over the next four years.

Kalshi, the current market leader in prediction markets, recorded $13.5 million in fees on a single day during the World Cup, a data point that validates the scale assumption underlying the analyst projections. If a single non-sportsbook platform can generate that kind of daily fee volume during a major tournament, the total addressable revenue across all platforms at scale is consistent with the aggregate implied by Bender and Slavin’s DraftKings-specific estimate.

For bettors who use the DraftKings promo code to access sportsbook promotions, the growth of DraftKings Predictions represents a parallel platform that operates under different rules and in different markets. The two products are complementary rather than competing from a user perspective, and both will likely offer promotional onboarding incentives as the prediction market category matures.

Competitors are watching the same opportunity. FanDuel launched FanDuel Predicts in December 2025 and has been expanding its exchange partnerships, most recently adding Crypto.com’s OG Prediction Markets. If FanDuel Predicts achieves a comparable market position to FanDuel Sportsbook relative to DraftKings, the $1 billion analyst projection for DraftKings would imply an even larger FanDuel Predicts revenue figure, pointing toward a duopoly structure in prediction markets that mirrors the sportsbook industry.

Timeline and Risks

Reaching $1 billion by 2030 requires sustained regulatory clarity, continued platform development, and successful customer acquisition in states where sportsbooks currently cannot operate. Regulatory risk remains the most significant variable. Congressional or CFTC action that restricts the sports contracts prediction markets can offer would compress the addressable opportunity.

The analyst note reflects optimism that the regulatory environment will ultimately settle in a way that permits meaningful sports event contract offerings, but that outcome is far from certain given the coordinated opposition from state-licensed gaming interests. The $1 billion figure is a projection, not a guarantee, and it will be tested at every regulatory decision point between now and 2030.