Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction: Aaron Nola’s Struggles Make L.A. a Runline Lock

The Dodgers have already won this series without needing their ace, and now they’re trying to close it out behind a fifth starter making a case for a rotation spot.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers -1.5
• Why: Aaron Nola’s 5.68 ERA and 3-7 record are a mismatch against a Dodgers lineup that just beat Zack Wheeler
• The number to watch: Phillies are 5-15 ATS in Nola’s 20 starts this season

Los Angeles heads into Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park up 2-1 in this four-game set, having taken Tuesday’s game 2-1 behind Justin Wrobleski and a two-run homer from Max Muncy. The Dodgers (64-38) still sit comfortably atop the NL West, though they’ve cooled a bit lately at 4-6 over their last 10. Philadelphia (56-46) is 3.0 games back in the NL East and has dropped four of its last six, including back-to-back one-run losses to a Dodgers team that’s outscored them 526-373 on the season.

Nola’s Struggles Are Shaping This Line

Eric Lauer (4-5, 4.81 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers, while the Phillies turn to Aaron Nola (3-7, 5.68 ERA) trying to snap out of the worst stretch of his career. Books have opened the Dodgers as moneyline favorites in the -110 to -120 range with Philadelphia sitting between even money and +100, and Los Angeles is also getting a small price on the runline at -1.5. That’s a notably shorter number than you’d expect on the road against a team just three games out of a playoff spot, and it’s almost entirely about who’s on the mound. Anyone shopping for the best number should check MLB odds before locking in a side.

Recent Form

Both teams have stumbled lately, but the Dodgers’ offense has stayed dangerous even while their record has flattened out — the Phillies’ recent skid has come with far less thump behind it.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Nola vs. a Lineup That Doesn’t Miss

Nola has been erratic against contact-heavy, patient lineups all year, and the Dodgers present exactly that problem from top to bottom. Shohei Ohtani is hitting .287 with 22 home runs and a .925 OPS at the top of the order, Freddie Freeman is riding a hot stretch that included his 364th career homer this series — tying Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper for 88th all-time — and Max Muncy has quietly punished mistakes all season with 19 homers and a .506 slugging mark. Tommy Edman, batting near the bottom of the order, is hitting .341.

The Phillies counter with plenty of thump of their own. Kyle Schwarber’s 33 home runs are among the National League leaders, and Bryce Harper is hitting .258 with 21 homers and a .497 slugging percentage. But Nola’s command issues — a 1.45 WHIP and a walk rate that’s crept up all summer — make it hard to trust Philadelphia’s pitching staff to keep this one close, especially with the bullpen thin after Max Lazar’s oblique injury.

The Phillies are 5-15 against the spread in Aaron Nola’s 20 starts with a line set this season.

That’s not a small-sample blip at this point in the year — it’s a full season of evidence that Nola starts are bad news for anyone backing Philadelphia against the number. Lauer, by contrast, has the Dodgers going 7-2 on the moneyline in his starts when Los Angeles is favored, even if his own ATS mark is more middling. The Dodgers don’t need a dominant start from him. They need him to keep the game close enough for the lineup to do the rest, and recent history says that’s the likely script.

Prediction and Best Bet

Los Angeles has the better roster, the better recent history in Nola starts, and momentum after winning back-to-back one-run games in this series. Philadelphia’s lineup can still do damage against a shaky Lauer, but this is shaping up as another game where the Phillies’ pitching problems outweigh their offense. Bettors looking to back the Dodgers can grab the DraftKings promo code before first pitch.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 6, Phillies 3
2. Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5

Nola’s season-long ATS numbers against a lineup this deep make the Dodgers a lay-up on the run line, even on the road.