Cowboys at 49ers: Best Player Props for SNF

After going 2-0 with our prop selections on Thursday Night, we’ll take a look at the 49ers and Cowboys matchup on Sunday Night Football.

This may turn out to be one of the best games of the year as two of the conference’s best matchups in what could end up being the NFC championship matchup, come January.

I’ll highlight a couple of spots where I find value on Sunday Night’s prop board. Enjoy the game and good luck!

Brock Purdy U20.5 Completions +100 (BetMGM)

We’ll start off with the Niners QB here against the #1 ranked team in terms of defensive DVOA per FTN’s Aaron Schatz. The debate on whether Brock Purdy is good or just a product of the Kyle Shanahan system is still up for debate, although the numbers on “the system” can’t be denied.

Purdy has been extremely efficient with the ball and hasn’t thrown an interception in 2023. He’s the top-rated QB by QBR and has the second-highest success rate in the league. He’s 3rd in the league with a 72.3% completion rate.

All this being said, Purdy has only cleared the total of 20.5 passes in one of four games this year. The Niners offense is incredibly complex in terms of alignment and player movement, but at its core, we can identify a simple principle.

The Niners want to get the ball to Christian McCaffrey and allow Purdy to make simple, open throws in space to their talented wide receivers. The Niners also understand how to control the game clock, as they are the slowest team in the league in terms of pace.

This can be seen as a function of the Niners constantly being up early in games, but I think it holds true no matter who the opponent is. You have a much higher likelihood of winning, the less time you give your opponent to score.

Purdy doesn’t need to throw the ball 35 times and I don’t think the 49ers want to subject him to the Cowboys’ devastating pass rush more often than they need to.

We’re also getting some value at MGM compared to the rest of the market which has this line anywhere between -105 and -114. My number is just under 19 completions for Purdy in this one, giving us a nice edge on the 20.5 at +100. 

Tony Pollard O55.5 Rush Yards -110 (BetMGM)

If there’s a weakness to this 49ers defense it would be their ability to stop the run. The Niners are stacked in the pass rush with Nick Bosa, Jeevon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, and company putting elite pressure on opposing QBs.

That being said, the unit isn’t *as* elite when it comes to stopping the run, which I think the Cowboys will look to take advantage of. Similar to the Niners, the Cowboys play at the third slowest pace in the league, understanding the importance of keeping the ball out of your opponent’s hands.

I think this will be especially important for Dallas going up against San Francisco’s juggernaut offense. Pollard has easily cleared this total in three of four games this year and I’m surprised that such an adjustment was made for this game against the Niners.

Pollard has performed well in the lead-back role for Dallas and I expect that to continue against the 49ers, despite the overall ability of their defense.

Again MGM is giving us some value in the number with the rest of the market giving a juiced -130 for this line or having the total higher already at 56.5 or 58.5. My projections put Pollard at 72 yards on Sunday Night, so I’m jumping all over the over 55.5 at MGM.