3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 22

Thursday’s NHL slate has plenty of angles, but the shots on goal market is one of the friendliest places for newer bettors to start. You do not need a player to score or get lucky on a bounce. You just need him to keep putting pucks on net, and the players below have been doing exactly that.

Here are three shots on goal props for October 22 that line up on recent form, role and matchup. Each one comes with a plain-English explanation of why the number looks beatable, so you can see the thinking and not just the pick.

Filip Forsberg Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at Boston

Filip Forsberg is the kind of volume shooter that makes a 2.5 line interesting. He is averaging right around three shots per game this season, which means the line sits just below his normal output. The Nashville winger has also been producing on the scoresheet, with 11 points over his last 10 games, and a player who is that involved in the offense tends to get plenty of looks.

Nashville’s power play is a big part of the story. The Predators rank third in the NHL at 29.6 percent, and Forsberg is a regular fixture on that unit. More power play time means more chances to fire from his preferred spots. Dimers’ model puts this over at roughly 64 percent, which is a 4 to 5 percent edge at prices that have ranged from about -140 to -150, so shop around before you bet.

The matchup is a good one too. Boston is 7-2-1 and a tough opponent, but the Bruins have allowed about 28 shots per game, so Nashville should get its share of chances. Forsberg is the guy most likely to take them.

Nick Schmaltz Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at Seattle

This is the plus-money option on the board. Nick Schmaltz has taken 31 shots through 10 games for Utah, a clip of 3.1 per game, and he has turned them into 7 goals and 6 assists. When a player is shooting the puck that often, a 2.5 line is not asking for much. Prices are sitting around +122 to +133 at most books, so you are getting paid for what is close to a coin flip.

His role backs it up. Schmaltz is projected for roughly 18 minutes tonight, including more than three minutes on the power play, and he scored the game-winning power play goal against Pittsburgh on Monday. Extra man-advantage time is one of the simplest ways to pile up shots, because teams get to set up and fire without the defense pressing.

Utah visits Seattle for a 10:00 PM ET puck drop, so this is a late one. Check your live NHL odds before the game, since the price on a late-night prop can move once lineups are confirmed.

Fraser Minten Over 1.5 Shots on Goal vs. Nashville

If you want the safest-looking number of the three, this is it. Fraser Minten has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 8 of his last 10 games, including six in a row. A line of 1.5 only needs two shots, and Minten has been clearing it with room to spare. He put four shots on net in his two-goal game in San Jose.

The Boston center wears number 93, has 4 goals and 4 assists this season, and sees about 16 minutes a night in a middle-six role. That is not a huge workload, but it is steady, and he plays on a team that is rolling at 7-2-1. Home games have been kind to him as well, as he has cleared the line in 3 of 4 at TD Garden this season.

Nashville has allowed just over 29 shots per game this season, and Minten does a lot of his work from the low slot where shots are easiest to come by. If you like to build a slip with one steadier leg, this is a sensible anchor. Just remember that a prop is not guaranteed to hit, so only wager what you are comfortable with and keep an eye on the responsible gambling resources if you ever need them.

Lock These In: Today’s Shots Edge

All three players have the same thing going for them. They shoot often, they get time on the power play or in strong offensive roles, and the lines sit at or below their normal output. That is the recipe for a shots prop worth backing.

• Filip Forsberg OVER 2.5 shots on goal at Boston (around -140, check your book)
• Nick Schmaltz OVER 2.5 shots on goal at Seattle (around +125, check your book)
• Fraser Minten OVER 1.5 shots on goal vs. Nashville (check your book for the price)

Prices move all day, so compare a few sportsbooks and take the best number you can find. Good luck tonight.