Conference Tournaments are now in full swing with a ton of great 1st round matchups for the big conferences, while the smaller conferences are crowning champions. We’ve already seen a handful of upsets and a ton of dogs covering their lines.
I have isolated 2 plays I really like tonight! The 1st game is in the second round of the Southland Conference Tournament, and the second game is in the opening round of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament. Let’s profit tonight and follow up our last article play which Illinois graciously cashed for us!
In 32 games this season, Northwestern State covered 17.5 points in 26, good for 81%. They have also covered this line in 100% of their last 10 games, 4 on the road, and one against this same McNeese team. McNeese has failed to win by this margin in 9 of their last 11, and 12 of their last 16 games overall.
Northwestern State is also 5-1(83%) against the spread in their last 6 games. Both teams have solid scoring defenses, Northwestern State allows just 68 per game (ranked 64th), while McNeese allows just 64(ranked 17th). McNeese averages 9 more points per game, so if Northwestern brings their defense tonight, they can keep this close. My main model likes this at 12, while my secondary model has this at 14, I like this down to +15.
Both of my models have this a 6-point game so if the line has moved, I would be okay down to 6. Neither of these teams are very good. Offensively they both average the same 71 points per game, defensively Prairie View allows 7.5 more points per game. These two played exactly 1 month ago and Prairie View lost by 11.
I believe they can keep things closer a second time around! In the 3 previous head-to-head matchups between these two, Prairie View won 2 of them and lost the 3rd by 1 point. Florida A&M has failed to cover this line in 5 straight, 8 of their last 10, and only covered 8.5 points in 24% of their games this season
Best Bets:
1% Northwestern St +17 (-120)
2% Prairie View A&M +8.5 (-110)
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