Cardinals vs. Giants Prediction: St. Louis Chases Wild Card at Oracle Park

The Cardinals still have a pulse in the wild-card race, and they just landed a schedule gift: six meetings with a Giants team playing out the string in the next ten days, starting Monday night at Oracle Park.

Quick take:

• Pick: St. Louis Cardinals moneyline
• Why: A hotter, deeper lineup against a Giants club that’s lost 85 games and is trending the wrong way at exactly the wrong time
• The number to watch: Iván Herrera has gone 7-for-15 with two homers and eight RBIs over his last three games

St. Louis (72-72) is four games back in the National League wild-card picture and has won six of its last ten, including road wins in back-to-back series at the Dodgers and Rockies. San Francisco (59-85) is 27 games back in the NL West with nothing left to play for except individual numbers — and one of those numbers belongs to Rafael Devers, who’s trying to become the first Giant since Barry Bonds to hit 40 home runs in a season.

Why the Number Says Cardinals, Even on the Road

Vegas has St. Louis as road favorites here, which tells you plenty about where these two clubs actually sit despite the standings gap being smaller than the vibes suggest. The Cardinals are sitting around -114 on the moneyline with the total hovering near 7.5, and that number has moved slightly toward St. Louis since the series opened, with sharp money apparently trusting a lineup that’s scored 657 runs against the Giants’ 604. San Francisco’s staff ERA (4.34) isn’t dramatically worse than the Cardinals’ (4.41), but a lineup that ranks 23rd in runs scored just doesn’t have many nights where it out-slugs a mistake.

Recent Form

The Cardinals arrive with more thump behind them and a better recent track record against the run of play; the Giants are limping home off a road trip that did nothing to change their outlook.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Herrera’s Heater and McGreevy’s Devers Problem

Iván Herrera has been the engine of this recent surge, batting .293 with an OPS near .800 over his last ten games and capping the Rockies series with a three-hit, two-RBI showing on Sunday. Jordan Walker (.317 in his last ten, 28 homers on the year) and Joshua Báez (.300 with two homers in that stretch) have given Michael McGreevy some cushion, and that matters, because McGreevy’s history with Rafael Devers is genuinely rough — Devers has gone 3-for-5 against him with two home runs in their head-to-head history. McGreevy is a Southern California native making his first career start in the Bay Area, and he’ll need his lineup to keep bailing him out if Devers gets to him again.

Devers has launched six home runs in his last seven games, running his season total to 35 as he chases a 40-homer season no Giant has reached since 2004.

That’s the swing factor. If Devers connects early, this game tightens fast regardless of what the numbers say about roster depth. But everywhere else on San Francisco’s lineup card, the Cardinals have an edge — Alec Burleson has 103 RBIs on the year, more than anyone Logan Webb will face outside of Devers himself, and Nolan Gorman provides another right-handed threat Webb (8-8, 4.21 ERA) hasn’t handled cleanly all season.

Prediction and Best Bet

St. Louis has the better everyday lineup, the better recent form, and a genuine reason to be locked in with a wild-card spot still in reach. San Francisco’s only real counter is one player capable of changing a game by himself, and that’s not enough over a full nine innings against a Cardinals team that’s out-hit its last ten opponents by a wide margin.

The pick:

1. Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 6, San Francisco Giants 4
2. Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals on the moneyline

Devers can make this interesting for an inning or two, but the Cardinals have too many answers up and down the order to let one player beat them on a Monday night in front of nobody with a real stake in the outcome. Check the live MLB odds before first pitch, as this line has been moving throughout the day.