Braves vs Nationals Prediction: Atlanta Looks to Stay Hot at Nationals Park

Atlanta’s rolled into Nationals Park on the back of one of its best stretches of the season, and Washington’s playing out the string with nothing left to lose — which, weirdly, has made the Nationals more dangerous than their record suggests.

Quick take:

• Pick: Braves -1.5 (run line)
• Why: Atlanta’s lineup is scorching hot and Washington’s rotation depth is running on fumes behind Jake Irvin
• The number to watch: Braves are 8-2 over their last 10 with a 2.25 team ERA in that stretch

The Braves show up at 82-56 and holding first place in the NL East, having ripped off a stretch that included sweeps of the Dodgers and Rockies before a rare hiccup against San Francisco. Washington, by contrast, sits at 66-74, 17 games back and buried in fourth — but the Nationals have actually scored more runs than they’ve allowed to start their week, and they just took two of three from Miami before dropping the finale.

Why the Number Says More Than the Records

Vegas has this line moving the way you’d expect for a first-place club on the road against a rebuilding one: Atlanta is sitting around -164 to -166 on the moneyline depending on the book, with the Braves also -1.5 favorites on the run line and the total set at 10. That’s a notably high total for a game featuring a Braves rotation that’s dealt with a rash of pitching injuries — Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo Lopez are all out — which tells you the market expects Washington’s shaky bullpen to give some of it back even if Atlanta’s offense doesn’t fully explode. It’s also worth noting the total has crept as high as 10 despite Washington’s offense hitting just .233 as a team over its last ten games, which says more about how the sportsbooks view Atlanta’s bats than anything the Nationals have shown lately.

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The gap between these two rosters shows up fast once you put the last couple weeks side by side.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Smith-Shawver’s Control Problem Meets an Offense Missing Its Best Bat

AJ Smith-Shawver gets the ball for Atlanta and the early returns haven’t been pretty — 0-0 with a 5.93 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP across his first stint back, including eight walks in just 13.2 innings. That’s the kind of command issue that can hand a struggling lineup free baserunners, and against a Washington team that’s shown some pop, it’s the one obvious soft spot on Atlanta’s side.

Except Washington isn’t getting the version of its lineup that made this scary in July. James Wood, who’s been the Nationals’ best all-around hitter this year at a .265/.393/.535 clip with 30 homers, is on the 10-day IL with an oblique issue and won’t play. That leaves shortstop CJ Abrams — hitting .267 with 29 home runs, 92 RBI and 26 stolen bases — as the lone standout bat left in a lineup that’s batted just .233 over its last 10 games.

Jake Irvin takes a 2-8 record and a 5.62 ERA into a start against the hottest offense he’s faced all month.

Irvin has racked up 82 strikeouts this season, so he’s not without swing-and-miss stuff, but a 1.40 WHIP and a rotation stripped down by injuries (Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz are all out for the year) means Washington’s margin for error is thin. Atlanta, meanwhile, has ridden contributions from Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Sean Murphy through this stretch, and Tyler Mahle just spun 6.2 shutout-caliber innings with nine strikeouts and zero walks in his last turn. If Smith-Shawver can just keep Washington’s lineup off the bases in bunches, Atlanta’s bats should still do enough against a taxed Nationals bullpen.

It’s a short bench, too. With Gray, Parker, Herz, Connelly Early, PJ Poulin, Richard Lovelady and Ken Waldichuk all on the 60-day IL, Washington’s front office has had to piece together its pitching staff on the fly for months now. That’s the kind of attrition that eventually shows up in a bullpen’s late-inning numbers, and it’s exactly the sort of soft spot a first-place offense like Atlanta’s is built to exploit if the game stays within reach into the sixth or seventh.

Prediction and Best Bet

Atlanta’s not going to blow this one open behind a shaky start from Smith-Shawver, but a Nationals offense missing its best hitter and leaning on a bullpen that’s been stretched thin all August shouldn’t be able to keep pace for nine innings either. Anyone tracking the market shift on this one throughout the day can check the latest MLB odds before first pitch.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Braves 6, Nationals 3
2. Best Bet: Braves -1.5 on the run line

Lay the extra run and trust that Atlanta’s depth wins out over Washington’s shorthanded lineup, even on a night the Braves’ starter isn’t at his sharpest.