Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction: Can Toronto Slow Down Philadelphia’s Loaded Lineup?

Aaron Nola gets to face a Blue Jays lineup that’s lost 8 of its last 10, while Max Scherzer takes the mound sporting a 7.92 ERA against the best offense in the National League — this one shouldn’t be close on paper, but Toronto has been full of surprises this week.

Quick take:

• Pick: Phillies moneyline
• Why: Scherzer’s velocity and command have cratered, and Philadelphia’s lineup is built to punish exactly that
• The number to watch: Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA over his last six starts

The Phillies (62-54) sit second in the NL East and just took the series opener on Friday night, 5-4, holding on late against a Blue Jays team that keeps finding ways to hang around games it has no business winning. Toronto (54-62) is buried in fifth place in the AL East, 14.5 games back, and playing out the string of a lost season — but a 6-4 mark over the last 10 games shows this isn’t a group that’s mailing it in.

If you’re weighing how to bet this series, checking the latest MLB odds before first pitch is always worth the extra minute given how much these numbers have moved over the past 24 hours.

Why Philadelphia Is Loaded as a Home Favorite

Books have the Phillies as sizable home chalk for Saturday’s 6:05 p.m. first pitch at Citizens Bank Park, with moneyline prices in the -144 to -159 range depending on the shop and Toronto sitting anywhere from +120 to +134 on the other side. The total has bounced between 7.5 and 9.5, which tells you oddsmakers aren’t totally sure what to make of two lineups that can both go quiet or get hot in a hurry. Given Scherzer’s second-half collapse against a Phillies offense that ranks near the top of the league in scoring, that price on Philadelphia looks more than fair.

Recent Form

The head-to-head tracker below is new this season and still filling in, but the form data tells the real story here — two teams heading in very different directions.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Scherzer’s Second Act Isn’t Going the Way Toronto Hoped

The Blue Jays brought Scherzer in for exactly this kind of veteran stability, and instead he’s been one of the worst qualified starters in baseball. Over his last several outings he’s carrying a 10.23 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP, numbers that scream danger against a Phillies lineup stacked with hitters who feast on mistakes over the plate. Kyle Schwarber has 33 home runs and a .521 slugging mark from the DH spot, Bryce Harper is hitting .255 with 24 homers and an .864 OPS, and Trea Turner has chipped in 16 homers and 17 steals atop the order. That’s not a lineup you want to leave hittable pitches for.

Toronto counters with Aaron Nola on the other side, and while the veteran right-hander has taken his lumps this year at 3-9 with a 5.55 ERA, his 9.07 K/9 shows the stuff is still there even when the results haven’t followed. Philadelphia has scored 505 runs as a team, and this park has a well-earned reputation for inflating offense.

Scherzer has posted a 10.23 ERA over his last stretch of starts, exactly the kind of number that gets exploited by a lineup averaging nearly five runs a game.

Toronto’s bats haven’t been dead, either — Ernie Clement is hitting .287 and George Springer has 12 homers, and the Jays did just take two of three from Houston before dropping the finale in Chicago. But asking a lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in OPS to consistently solve a bounce-back Nola while their own starter gives up hard contact all night is a tough combination to bet against Philadelphia covering.

Injuries complicate things a bit for the home team. Andrew Painter remains day-to-day with a hamstring issue and won’t start, though he could be available in relief if the Phillies need length out of the bullpen. Outfielder Derek Hill is also banged up, and Philadelphia has been without Adolis Garcia and Johan Rojas for extended stretches, both on the 60-day injured list. None of that touches the middle of the order, though — Schwarber, Harper and Turner have all been available and productive, which is what actually matters against a fringe big-league arm like Scherzer right now.

Toronto, for its part, is already down closer Jose Berrios with an elbow issue, and the roster construction late in a lost season leans heavily on younger arms who haven’t been tested in a hostile road environment like Citizens Bank Park. That ballpark has a reputation for playing small, and a shaky Blue Jays bullpen behind Scherzer only raises the ceiling on a big Phillies inning if Toronto’s starter can’t work deep into the game.

Prediction and Best Bet

Philadelphia’s lineup depth and Scherzer’s second-half struggles point toward a comfortable night for the home team, even with Nola looking for more consistency of his own. The Phillies have won five of their last seven series openers and have been considerably better at home than Toronto has been on the road this season, which matters in a game like this where the pitching matchup so clearly favors one side.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Phillies 6, Blue Jays 3
2. Best Bet: Phillies on the moneyline

With Scherzer trending in the wrong direction and Philadelphia’s order finally healthy enough to feast, this is a spot where the favorite is priced about right — and still worth backing. Bettors looking to get in on the action can check out a DraftKings promo code before placing a wager on this one.