Blue Jays vs. Athletics Prediction: Toronto Should Roll Behind Soriano

The Blue Jays are playing out the string in a lost AL East race, but that doesn’t mean this series at Sutter Health Park is meaningless — not when the opponent has the worst run differential in baseball and a rotation held together with duct tape.

Quick take:

• Pick: Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
• Why: Jose Soriano gives Toronto a real starter against an Athletics lineup that’s been outscored by 188 runs this season
• The number to watch: Jack Perkins’ 6.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 33 starts

Toronto sits at 72-72, fourth in the AL East and 13.5 games back with nothing but pride left to play for down the stretch. Oakland is in far worse shape at 57-87, dead last in the AL West and riding one of the ugliest run-differential numbers in the sport at -188. The Blue Jays took the opener of this set, and Tuesday night gives them a chance to pile on against a Perkins-led pitching staff that’s been gutted by injuries all summer.

Why the Market Isn’t Buying an Upset

Toronto opened as roughly a -180 favorite and has held firm near -187 on the MLB odds boards, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-114) and the total at 9.5. That’s a significant number for two teams with losing records, and it reflects just how thin Oakland’s rotation has become. The Athletics have lost starters Gunnar Hoglund, J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino and others to season-ending or extended injuries, leaving replacement-level arms like Perkins to soak up innings against a Toronto lineup that still has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer in it.

Recent Form

Toronto has actually heated up over its last stretch of games even as the standings stayed frozen, while Oakland’s underlying numbers back up why oddsmakers see this as a mismatch.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Soriano vs. a Perkins Staff Running on Fumes

Jose Soriano takes the ball for Toronto with an 11-7 record, a 3.52 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP across his starts this season — a legitimate mid-rotation arm who’s given the Blue Jays length and consistency all year. Oakland counters with Jack Perkins, who owns a 3-10 record, a 6.50 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 33 outings. That’s not a mismatch on paper so much as a chasm, and it’s part of why Toronto is such a heavy favorite in a game between two sub-.500 clubs.

Second baseman Ernie Clement has quietly been one of Toronto’s steadiest bats late in the year, hitting .275 with 9 home runs, 46 RBIs and an .686 OPS out of the bottom third of the order. He’s also striking out at one of the lowest rates in the majors against left-handed pitching, a sign of the contact-oriented approach that’s kept Toronto’s lineup afloat even as the win column stalled. On the other side, Oakland’s offense has managed to string together a few wins in recent games, but the pitching behind Perkins simply hasn’t been able to hold leads or keep games close against teams with a functioning rotation.

Oakland has been outscored by 188 runs this season, the worst mark in the American League.

That run-differential gap is the whole story here. Toronto doesn’t need to be a great team to win this series — it just needs to avoid the kind of pitching disasters that have plagued Oakland’s staff for months. With Soriano on the mound and a lineup that’s shown some pop in recent games, the Blue Jays are built to take advantage of exactly the kind of start Perkins tends to give up.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer remain the two names capable of turning this into a laugher if Perkins struggles early, and Toronto’s bullpen — even without some of its injured arms — should be able to protect a lead against an Oakland offense that hasn’t shown it can consistently come back from deficits.

Prediction and Best Bet

Toronto’s rotation advantage and recent form make this one of the more lopsided matchups on the board Tuesday night, even with both teams out of playoff contention. Expect the Blue Jays to jump on Perkins early and cruise behind Soriano.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 6, Athletics 2
2. Best Bet: Blue Jays on the run line (-1.5)

With the pitching gap this wide, laying the run and a half is the smarter play than settling for a shorter price on the moneyline.