Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-139)
I look for Hill to be pissed off for greatness now that the footage of his detainment by Miami police has come to the forefront of social media. The incident obviously didn’t hurt his Week 1 performance, as he hauled in 7 receptions for 130 yards and a long TD against the Jags.
Rasul Douglas is a fantastic corner for Buffalo but look for head coach Mike McDaniel to get Hill the ball on plenty of WR screens. He always finds a way to get his best playmakers the ball, regardless of how tough the matchup may be.
Hill went Over this total in 10 of 16 regular season games in 2023 and his median was 8. The juice on this one should only go up until gametime, so jump on this one as soon as you can. I think this number should be 7.5 instead of 6.5. Let’s open things up with an Over!
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+120)
This is way too much plus money to pass up here! Allen’s median passing touchdown number was 2 last season and he went over this number in 10 of his 19 games (2 playoff games included). Miami’s secondary should be better than they were a year ago, but I still think this price is a bargain for a QB of Allen’s ability.
The Dolphins corners looked a little bit soft at times last week against Jacksonville. They allowed 6.6 yards per pass, which ranked just 18th in the league. Allen went over this number of passing TDs in both outings against Miami in 2023, as he threw for 4 and 2 respectively in those games.
I also think that the move to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator will wind up paying big dividends for Allen this season. Brady is a player’s coach who allows the key players to have input in what plays get called each week. Look for Allen to have his second straight game with at least 2 passing touchdowns! Give me all that plus money!
James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)
This juice looks awfully cheap on a back that grabbed 3 or more receptions in 11 of 19 games a season ago. Cook also hauled in 3 catches against the Cards in Week 1. With Josh Allen breaking in several new receivers this season, I expect him to throw to his running backs and tight ends more often during the first few weeks.
Cook’s median receptions number was 3 in 2023 and there’s a nice edge on this Over that we’ll explain. Since Cook has hit the Over on this prop in 12 of his last 20 outings (60%-win rate), we can math things up to figure out our expected value.
At a juice of -115, we have to win 53.5% of the time to break even. Take Cook’s current 60% hit rate and subtract that required break even rate of 53.5%. That gives us an implied edge of 6.5%. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
If math makes your head hurt, let’s get back to game flow. Miami’s defense had the highest sack rate in Week 1 at 12.5%. If they get that kind of pressure on Allen in Week 2, Brady will be forced to call several screens and swing passes to Cook. Let’s ride the Over to the cash window!
