ALDS Game 5 Betting Guide: Best Bet for Tigers vs. Mariners

It all comes down to tonight. The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are tied 2–2 in their Division Series, and Game 5 in Seattle will decide who moves on to the ALCS.

Both teams have traded momentum throughout the series; each team’s offense has found success on enemy territory, but Detroit enters with the confidence of a dominant Game 4 win and behind the arm of the best pitcher in baseball.

The Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs George Kirby

Detroit gives the ball to Tarik Skubal, who has been one of baseball’s most consistent starters all season, in my opinion, the best in baseball. Skubal went 13–6 in the regular season with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts, cementing himself as the only Cy Young winner once again.

He’s been the anchor of Detroit’s rotation for consecutive years and has already delivered in big moments. Now he gets a spot to exact some revenge and make up for last season’s game 5 start on the road at Cleveland, where he was shelled for 5 runs. Detroit has lost all three starts for Skubal this season vs the Mariners, a trend I like him to flip today. He will attack these hitters, his line has moved from 18.5 to 19.5 outs, and as a Free Play addition, I would add Skubal o19.5 Outs at -118 current odds.

On the other side, George Kirby gets the start for Seattle. Kirby had an up and down 2025 season dealing with injury but has looked better down the stretch. He posted a 4.21 ERA with an improved fastball and a higher strikeout rate than last season. He doesn’t walk many hitters and thrives when he’s locating on the edges.

This Detroit offense has shown patience in the past and success off Kirby where they put up 6 hits off of him last time out. If they can draw some free bases and add some hits the Mariners could go to the pen sooner than expected.

Best Bet: Detroit ML (–110)

We have seen Detroit drop from -135 favorites down to current best odds of -110. I don’t agree with this line movement, but I do see how some could back the better offense. Seattle does pose more threat on offense, but I am willing to back Skubal in a chance to display to the world how dominant he is.

With the total down to 5.5, something we just don’t see, the books clearly see a low scoring game. Seattle has notoriously been the lowest run producing stadium in the majors for years and Skubal has gone 21 outs in two of his last three starts there. They will ride Skubal until the wheels fall off and he has a chance to go 7-8 innings with 0-1 runs allowed. Behind Carpenter and Baez, Detroit has the talent to find timely hits in this game.