The NBA’s fastest team meets its stingiest defense in Minneapolis, and only one of them gets to dictate how Saturday night plays out.
Quick take:
- Pick: Under 236.5 total points
- Why: Minnesota owns the league’s best defensive rating and has no reason to run with Chicago, even as a heavy favorite.
- The number to watch: 103.8, the Timberwolves’ defensive rating, first in the NBA.
The Chicago Bulls (2-9) arrive at Target Center with a pulse for the first time in weeks. They snapped an eight-game losing streak on Friday, beating Atlanta 125-117 in overtime behind a season-high 33 points from Norman Powell. The price: they lost Caleb Wilson, their second-leading scorer, to a broken hand, and they are playing the second half of a quick turnaround.
The Minnesota Timberwolves (9-3) have won five straight without Anthony Edwards, who has been out since late October with a knee injury. Donte DiVincenzo is also out with an Achilles injury. None of it has slowed them down. Thursday’s 133-94 rout of Dallas was their fifth consecutive win, and their average margin of 13.4 points per game leads the league.
Wolves Are Huge Favorites, but the Total Is the Real Question
Books have Minnesota between -13.5 and -14.5 depending on where you shop, with the moneyline around -950 and Chicago near +640. The total is 236.5. That is the Wolves’ shortest moneyline price of the season, and it tells you the market sees a blowout. The sharper question is whether a blowout actually produces 237 points, and Minnesota’s profile says it may not.
| Saturday, November 14 at 8:10 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Chicago Bulls | 
+16.5 (-115) | 
+810 | 
O 235.5 (-107) |
| Minnesota Timberwolves |
-16.5 (-108) | 
-1080 |
U 234.5 (-112) |
Recent Form
Minnesota has been rolling while Chicago has been scrambling. Here is how each team has actually played lately, plus what history says about this matchup.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Atlanta Hawks | +6.5 / 245.5 | Won 125-117 | Won / Under |
| Nov 12, 2026 | San Antonio Spurs | +15.5 / 243.5 | Lost 119-124 | Won / Under |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Philadelphia 76ers | +9.5 / 243.5 | Lost 121-127 | Won / Over |
| Nov 5, 2026 | @New York Knicks | +26.5 / 242.5 | Lost 135-105 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @Philadelphia 76ers | +11.5 / 235.5 | Lost 126-107 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Boston Celtics | +25.5 / 249.5 | Lost 125-111 | Won / Under |
| Oct 29, 2026 | New York Knicks | +7.5 / 236.5 | Lost 127-133 | Won / Over |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Boston Celtics | +17.5 / 240.5 | Lost 134-99 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Washington Wizards | -2.5 / 245.5 | Lost 120-124 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Milwaukee Bucks | +1.5 / 246.5 | Won 125-132 | Won / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Dallas Mavericks | -5.5 / 230.5 | Won 133-94 | Won / Under |
| Nov 9, 2026 | Utah Jazz | -15.5 / 222.5 | Won 115-100 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 7, 2026 | @New Orleans Pelicans | -8.5 / 234.5 | Won 109-115 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 5, 2026 | @Houston Rockets | +4.5 / 230.5 | Won 107-117 | Won / Under |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Milwaukee Bucks | -15.5 / 234.5 | Won 112-100 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @San Antonio Spurs | +14.5 / 229.5 | Lost 121-111 | Won / Over |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Los Angeles Clippers | -6.5 / 222.5 | Won 127-101 | Won / Over |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Golden State Warriors | -5.5 / 230.5 | Lost 114-119 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Cleveland Cavaliers | -7.5 / 231.5 | Lost 127-125 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Cleveland Cavaliers | +4.5 / 234.5 | Lost 127-125 | Won / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2025 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Chicago Bulls | -10.5 / 226.5 | Won 127-108 | Won / Over |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Chicago Bulls | @Minnesota Timberwolves | +9.5 / 226.5 | Lost 119-135 | Lost / Over |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Chicago Bulls | -8.5 / 212.5 | Lost 101-109 | Lost / Under |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Chicago Bulls | @Minnesota Timberwolves | +4.5 / 216.5 | Won 129-123 | Won / Over |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Chicago Bulls | @Minnesota Timberwolves | -3 / 222.5 | Won 139-131 | Won / Over |
| Dec 19, 2022 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Chicago Bulls | +1.5 / 234 | Won 150-126 | Won / Over |
| Apr 11, 2022 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Chicago Bulls | -7 / 229.5 | Lost 120-124 | Lost / Over |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Chicago Bulls | @Minnesota Timberwolves | -1.5 / 242 | Won 134-122 | Won / Over |
| Apr 12, 2021 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Chicago Bulls | +4 / 232.5 | Won 121-117 | Won / Over |
| Feb 25, 2021 | Chicago Bulls | @Minnesota Timberwolves | -4.5 / 229.5 | Won 133-126 | Won / Over |
Why a Fast Team Still Struggles to Score Here
Chicago plays at the fastest pace in the league, roughly 103 possessions per 48 minutes, but speed has not produced efficiency. Entering Friday the Bulls ranked 24th in offensive rating at about 110 points per 100 possessions and were shooting just 28.9% from three. They also rank last in defensive rating at about 125, which is why their games tend to be high-scoring for the wrong reasons.
Minnesota is the opposite. The Wolves lead the NBA in defensive rating (103.8), rebounding (48.9 per game) and net rating (+13.4), and they have held five opponents to 100 points or fewer. Rudy Gobert anchors it at 11.5 rebounds per game, and LaMelo Ball has quietly become a real defender: Minnesota allows 101.0 points per 100 possessions with Ball on the floor versus 111.7 when he sits.
Minnesota’s defense has held opponents to 42.9% shooting, and Chicago owns the league’s worst defensive rating, so the question is not whether the Wolves win but how many possessions they let the Bulls have.
The Wolves can score. Ball is averaging 24.4 points during the winning streak while shooting 47.9% from three, and Ayo Dosunmu, who started his career in Chicago, is putting up 18.1 points a game on 52.2% shooting. Bones Hyland gave the bench a lift with 24 points and 8 assists against Dallas. But Minnesota’s offense feeds off stops, and that is not the same as a shootout.
Minnesota has also been the league’s best team at taking away second chances. The Wolves rebound at a rate no one else matches, and the Bulls’ offensive-rebound share of 31.3% is just below the league average of 31.6%, so Chicago is unlikely to manufacture extra possessions from the glass. When a team shoots poorly from deep and cannot crash the boards against a Gobert-led front line, its scoring ceiling gets lower, not higher.
Chicago’s rotation is thin too. Wilson was averaging 18.9 points before the injury, Powell is at about 19 points per game, and Giddey is averaging 8.3 assists, while Jalen Smith leads the team with 7.4 rebounds. Beyond that group the Bulls have leaned on Matas Buzelis (13.3 points) and veterans such as Isaac Okoro, Patrick Williams and Buddy Hield. That is a lot to ask against a defense that has been the best in the league over 12 games.
There is a real counterpoint. Chicago allows 128.8 points a game, so Minnesota does not need many trips to climb past 120. Giddey, who posted 14 assists and 10 rebounds on Friday, and Powell can also keep the Bulls in the 100s. But if the Wolves are comfortably ahead by the third quarter, the starters sit, the clock moves, and the over loses its best path.
Short version: the Wolves do not need Chicago’s pace, and they have shown they can win by 20 without it.
Prediction and Best Bet
Minnesota wins comfortably, as the number says it should. Where we part ways with the market is on how the points arrive. A team that leads the league in defense, rebounding and margin tends to win with stops, not shootouts, and Chicago is missing Wilson, its second-leading scorer. Anyone shopping for a sportsbook before tip-off can compare the DraftKings promo code offer, but note that the Wolves are 11-1 against the spread this season, which makes the huge side price a tough ask at this number.
The pick:
- Prediction: Timberwolves 121, Bulls 105
- Best Bet: Under 236.5 total points
Take the under: Minnesota’s defense is the most dependable thing on the board, and a 226-point final lands comfortably below the number. For more matchups, check the live NBA odds.
