The Rays have scored just seven runs in three World Series games, and now they have to beat a Milwaukee bullpen that barely gives anything up to stay alive.
Quick take:
- Pick: Brewers moneyline (-139 at BetMGM)
- Why: Milwaukee’s fully rested bullpen has allowed two runs in 13 innings this series, and Tampa Bay’s offense has not found an answer for it.
- The number to watch: Seven runs total for the Rays across three games.
Game 4 of the World Series at Tropicana Field on Tuesday night (8:00 PM ET on FOX) is the one Milwaukee has been building toward. The Brewers, who went 103-59 in the regular season, lead the series 3-0 after a 10-1 demolition in Game 3 and sit one win from the first championship in franchise history.
For the Rays (98-64), this is the elimination game. No team has ever come back from 0-3 in a World Series.
A Bullpen Game Meets an Elimination Game
The market has Milwaukee as a modest favorite. At BetMGM the Brewers are -139 on the moneyline with the Rays at +115, the total is 7 runs (over -120, under +100), and the run line has Milwaukee at -1.5 (+135). DraftKings has a nearly identical run line, with Milwaukee at -1.5 (+140) and Tampa Bay at +1.5 (-169). That is not a huge price for a team up 3-0, which tells you the books are respecting Tampa Bay’s desperation and the uncertainty around who actually starts for Milwaukee.
The Brewers have not named a starter. Brandon Woodruff was expected to get the ball, but he closed out Game 3 in his first appearance since early July, which likely takes him off the table. Dustin May, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan are all options, and Milwaukee could also hand the opening innings to one of its late-inning relievers. If you are tracking the price movement as the lineup news comes in, our live MLB odds page has the latest numbers.
| Tuesday, October 27 at 8:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 
-1.5 (120) | 
-136 |
O 7.5 (116) |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
+1.5 (-170) |
+123 | 
U 7 (-112) |
Recent Form
The form data below shows two teams heading in opposite directions, and the head-to-head table will fill in as the sample grows.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 1-10 | Won / Over |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 3-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 5-4 | Won / Over |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays | -2.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-6 | Won / Over |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 4-6 | Won / Over |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 8.5 | Won 2-6 | Won / Under |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-1 | Won / Under |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 7-4 | Won / Over |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 2-1 | Won / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 1-10 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @Milwaukee Brewers | -1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @Milwaukee Brewers | -1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 5-4 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Milwaukee Brewers | +2.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 7-3 | Won / Over |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-7 | Won / Over |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 1-3 | Won / Under |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @Cleveland Guardians | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @Cleveland Guardians | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-7 | Lost / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays | @Milwaukee Brewers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 1-10 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | @Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 3-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | @Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 5-4 | Won / Over |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | @Tampa Bay Rays | -2.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | @Tampa Bay Rays | -1.5 / 7 | Won 8-2 | Won / Over |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | @Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 6-2 | Won / Over |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | @Tampa Bay Rays | -1.5 / 8 | Lost 2-3 | Lost / Under |
| May 11, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rays | @Milwaukee Brewers | -1.5 / 8.5 | Lost 2-4 | Lost / Under |
| May 10, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rays | @Milwaukee Brewers | -1.5 / 9.5 | Won 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| May 9, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rays | @Milwaukee Brewers | +1.5 / 9.5 | Won 4-3 | Won / Under |
Why Tampa Bay Keeps Running Out of Answers
Milwaukee won Game 1 by a 3-2 score, took Game 2 by 5-4, and then blew the doors off in Game 3. That 10-1 result came on the back of an eight-run fifth inning, the first time any team has scored eight runs with two outs in a World Series inning. The Brewers became the first team in postseason history to get hits from seven consecutive batters in a game, and eight of the nine starters in the lineup picked up at least one hit.
Jackson Chourio led the way with four hits and a stolen base, and William Contreras went 3-for-5. Contreras is hitting .417 this postseason with 28 total bases in 11 games. Cooper Pratt, the 22-year-old rookie shortstop who wears No. 12 and debuted in June, doubled in two runs in that fifth inning and has stolen two bases in October.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has allowed two runs in 13 innings in this series, and its key arms, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill, all rested in Game 3.
That is the problem with trying to rally against a bullpen game. Rays hitters do not get to settle in against one starter, and every arm they see is fresh. In Game 1, Tampa Bay’s five through nine hitters went 1-for-17.
The Rays do have a credible plan on the other side. Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) carries a 1.88 ERA over his last six outings covering 24 innings, and he allowed one run over 17 innings across his final four regular-season starts. His postseason has been bumpier, with three runs allowed in four innings as a starter in the ALCS. Manager Kevin Cash will go with a short leash and an all-hands bullpen, including Nick Martinez and closer Bryan Baker. Shane McClanahan is out for the postseason.
Yandy Diaz was the only Ray to get a hit off Robert Gasser in Game 3, a leadoff single before Gasser faced the minimum through six innings. If Tampa Bay is going to survive, Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero have to set the table early against whichever Milwaukee arm opens.
Prediction and Best Bet
Tampa Bay will fight, and a Jax start with the season on the line is a real threat for four or five innings. But Milwaukee’s lineup has hit in every spot, its bullpen is rested and has been nearly unhittable, and the Rays have not scored more than four runs in any game this series. The Brewers close it out and take the title, with the total landing right around the posted number. If you want to bet the game, our DraftKings promo code page walks through the current new-user offer.
The pick:
- Prediction: Brewers 5, Rays 2
- Best Bet: Brewers on the moneyline
Milwaukee has been the better team in every phase, and a rested bullpen against a Tampa Bay lineup that has managed seven runs in three games is a price worth taking at -139.
