Tuesday night’s World Series Game 4 is the lone game on the MLB board, and it comes with a twist. The Brewers lead the series 3-0 and are one win from a sweep, but they have not named a starter. A bullpen game looks likely, with Shane Drohan, Dustin May or Kyle Harrison all possible. That makes the Brewers side of the pitching prop board a guessing game, so we are not going to guess.

The one starter we do know is Tampa Bay’s Griffin Jax, the right-hander wearing number 22, who takes the ball with the Rays’ season on the line. Instead of chasing a pitcher who may not be set yet, we are going three different ways at Jax: strikeouts, outs recorded and earned runs allowed. Each bet tests a different part of his night, and we will explain every term as we go. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field, with Milwaukee around -139 on the moneyline, Tampa Bay around +115 and a total of 7 runs.

Griffin Jax Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Strikeouts are the simplest pitcher prop. The sportsbook sets a number, and you bet whether the pitcher finishes above it (over) or below it (under). ESPN’s board shows Jax at over 3.5 strikeouts around -125, and the line has been listed near -115 at other books. A 3.5 line means Jax needs four strikeouts to cash the over.

Jax struck out 116 batters in 112.1 regular-season innings, a rate of 9.3 per nine innings, which is a real swing-and-miss profile. His September included seven strikeouts against Oakland and five against Boston, both in five-inning outings. He also struck out four in just two relief innings against the Yankees on October 7.

There are warnings here too. He had only two strikeouts over four innings at Cleveland in the ALCS, and just one in a short September 26 outing that ended when a line drive hit him in the lower back. The line asks for four strikeouts, and his strikeout rate says a normal-length outing gets him there. It is a fair price on a pitcher who misses bats.

Griffin Jax Over 10.5 Outs Recorded

Outs recorded is exactly what it sounds like: how many outs the pitcher gets before he is pulled. Three outs make an inning, so 10.5 outs means Jax needs 11 outs, which is three and two-thirds innings. In plain terms, he has to get through the third inning and pick up two outs in the fourth. TheLines lists this at +100 at BetMGM, meaning a $100 bet wins $100. Some books hang the number at 11.5 instead, so check your book before you bet.

The reason to like it is how deep he has been going. In his last four regular-season starts he allowed just one run in 17 innings, and three of his last five regular-season starts went five full innings. The shortest recent outings were the 2.2 innings against the Mets on September 2 and the three innings on September 26 that ended after that line drive. In his last start, the ALCS loss at Cleveland, he went four innings, which is 12 outs and would have cleared this number.

With the Rays facing elimination, there is little reason to expect an early hook unless he gets into trouble. An even-money price on 11 outs is a good deal for a pitcher who has regularly cleared that mark when healthy.

Griffin Jax Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed

An earned run is a run that scores without the help of a defensive error. A 1.5 line means Jax has to allow one earned run or fewer for the under to cash. Mind the price: DraftKings has the over at +126 and the under at -168, so books clearly expect him to hold Milwaukee to one run or none. You pay a heavier price in exchange for a higher chance of winning, which is a fine trade for newer bettors who prefer cashing tickets to chasing long odds.

The evidence is strong. Jax allowed zero earned runs in three of his five September starts, and across his final four regular-season starts he gave up one run in 17 innings. He also carries a 1.18 WHIP, which means he allows only about one baserunner per inning, and fewer baserunners mean fewer chances for the Brewers to string together a rally.

The risk is obvious. Milwaukee won Game 3 by a score of 10-1 with eight runs coming with two outs in the fifth inning, and this team has won seven straight games and is 9-1 this postseason. Jax also allowed three earned runs in four innings in the ALCS. This is the riskiest of the three picks, so if you want less exposure, stick with the strikeout and outs bets and skip this one.

Lock In the Jax Trifecta

With the Brewers starter still unannounced, we are leaning on the one pitcher we can actually study. Before you bet, shop the numbers on the live MLB odds page and confirm them at your own sportsbook, because props can move once Milwaukee reveals its plan. Here are the three plays:

Jax has the stuff, the recent form and the motivation to go deep for a team with no margin for error. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and visit our responsible gambling page if you ever need help.