Two Japanese Aces Collide: Cubs vs. Mets Prediction and Best Bet for June 22
Monday night at Citi Field in Flushing, New York, is setting up as one of the more peculiar pitching matchups of the 2026 season. The Chicago Cubs (40-37) send Shota Imanaga to the mound against the New York Mets (34-43), who will counter with Kodai Senga. Two Japanese-born starting pitchers, both at different stages of their American careers, will face off in what amounts to a must-win game for a Mets team that has been spinning its wheels all season. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage on SNY and Marquee Sports Network.
The Cubs are above .500 and sitting in the middle of a competitive NL Central race. The Mets have been disappointing after offseason expectations ran high, and Senga’s struggles have been one of the central storylines of their season. This game has multiple angles worth examining before making a bet.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds: Imanaga’s Edge Over a Struggling Senga
The market has installed the Cubs as modest road favorites at -118 to -122 on the moneyline, with the Mets sitting at +100 to +101 at home. That pricing reflects Senga’s significant difficulties this season — more on that shortly. The run line has Chicago at -1.5 (+134 to +136) and New York at +1.5 (-162 to -164). The total has been set at 8.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. Seventy-one percent of public bets have come in on Chicago, and the number has barely moved, suggesting the market is comfortable with that distribution. Check Live MLB Odds for the latest line movement heading into first pitch.
Imanaga Shows Consistency, Senga’s ERA Tells a Difficult Story
Shota Imanaga has settled into his role as a legitimate mid-rotation starter for Chicago. His 4.26 ERA through 2026 does not leap off the page, but his underlying numbers paint a better picture. His 1.062 WHIP indicates he is controlling the strike zone reasonably well, and his 8.72 strikeout-per-nine rate is the kind of number that produces consistent quality starts. Imanaga works with a high-spin four-seam fastball and an excellent splitter, and he has been particularly tough against right-handed hitters who struggle to pick up the late movement on his offspeed pitches. When Imanaga has his best stuff, he is capable of holding a powerful lineup to two or fewer runs.
Kodai Senga’s 2026 season has been one of the toughest stretches of his professional life. After returning from the elbow injury that cost him much of 2025, Senga is 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA in six starts. His WHIP has ballooned to 1.875, and his strikeout-per-nine sits at 10.50 — indicating the raw stuff is still there — but his command has been erratic, and he has given up crooked numbers in multiple outings. The Mets have gone 1-5 in his starts, and the offense has not provided much cushion. There are moments where the old Senga shows up, flashing the ghost forkball that made him one of the most dominant pitchers in Japan, but those moments have been inconsistent.
One angle that shapes the Cubs’ case significantly: Chicago is 40-37 on the season and sits in the thick of the NL Central race. They need wins like this, and their offense — led by Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cody Bellinger — has been productive against right-handed pitching. Bellinger in particular has been one of the more consistent offensive forces in the NL this season, and Senga’s ongoing command issues could lead to a multi-run inning early if he cannot locate his fastball. Use a betting calculator to map out how this game fits into your broader Monday card.
The Mets’ Lineup Has Real Weapons of Its Own
Despite the losing record, the Mets are not a team to write off entirely at the plate. Juan Soto has been one of the best hitters in baseball since arriving in New York, posting elite on-base percentages and making an impact in every lineup slot he has occupied. Francisco Lindor has also been productive despite the team’s struggles, and the lineup has enough right-handed bats to pressure Imanaga when he is not at his sharpest. Citi Field has historically played as a moderate pitcher’s park, which helps keep totals reasonable, but the 8.5 total in this game reflects the dual-pitcher dynamic rather than any specific home/road advantage.
The Mets at home are 18-18, which is a genuinely neutral split, and they have shown an ability to grind out wins when their pitching holds. The challenge is that Senga’s recent history makes predicting a quality start from him a difficult proposition. If he gives the offense a chance to win, the Mets have the lineup to do it. If he struggles early, Chicago will be in the driver’s seat before the starting rotation even becomes an issue. Competitive lines on this game are available through the FanDuel promo code and the DraftKings promo code offers.
Prediction and Best Bet
Imanaga is the more reliable pitcher in this matchup by a wide margin, and the Cubs’ lineup has the tools to punish Senga’s command issues early. Chicago is the right side at -118, but the more compelling play is actually targeting the Cubs’ first-five-innings total, where Imanaga’s consistency and Senga’s volatility are most directly expressed.
- Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, New York Mets 3
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs moneyline (-118)
The Cubs at -118 on the moneyline represent fair value in a matchup where Chicago has a clear pitching edge and a lineup equipped to exploit Senga’s command problems. Imanaga will need to navigate the Mets’ top-of-the-order threats, but his consistency makes him the more bankable option. A Cubs win here is the percentage play, and -118 is a number you can take with confidence.
Andrew Elmquist
Sports Betting Contributor
Andrew is an up-and-coming sports betting analyst who specializes in Daily Fantasy Sports and player props in all sports. He holds degrees from Winona State University in Spanish and Communications. You can find Andrew on X @AndrewElmquist1
