What Prediction Markets Are Saying About This Week’s Biggest Sports Events

Prediction markets work differently than traditional sportsbooks. Instead of a house setting lines, crowds of traders buy and sell outcome contracts, and the prices that emerge often reflect sharper, more current information than you’ll find anywhere else. Right now, several of the most active sports markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are focused on NBA playoff games happening tonight and a massive UFC title fight this weekend. Here’s what those markets are telling us — and whether it’s worth following the crowd or fading it.

The Knicks Have New York Buzzing After a Dominant Game 1

The New York Knicks crushed the Philadelphia 76ers 137-98 in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series at Madison Square Garden, and for tonight’s Game 2, prediction markets are pricing New York at a 72.5 percent probability to win again. Traditional sportsbooks echo that confidence: the Knicks opened as a 7.5-point favorite before the line settled at -6.5 at DraftKings, with a -270 moneyline and a total of 215.5.

New York finished the regular season at 53-29, while Philadelphia came in at 45-37. Game 2 tips off tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN from Madison Square Garden. The 76ers need this win badly to avoid falling into a 0-2 series hole before the series even shifts to Philadelphia. Joel Embiid and Paul George will need to deliver a very different performance than the one they put up two nights ago. The crowd will be raucous, the spotlight will be enormous, and the prediction markets say the Knicks are the right side.

For the spread specifically, there’s a meaningful question about whether the 76ers can at least keep it respectable. Both the moneyline and spread markets lean hard toward New York, but Philadelphia’s playoff experience and Embiid’s interior presence give them a puncher’s chance to cover even if they don’t steal the win. You can check the live NBA odds as tip-off approaches to see where the line ends up.

San Antonio Dropped a Stunner in Game 1 — Markets Still Trust the Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs had the best record in the Western Conference at 62-20 during the regular season. Then the Minnesota Timberwolves came into the Frost Bank Center on Monday and walked out with a 104-102 Game 1 victory. Julius Randle led Minnesota with 21 points. Spurs guard Dylan Harper responded with 18 but it was not enough to hold off a Timberwolves team playing with tremendous focus and energy.

Despite that upset, prediction markets still have San Antonio at a 77.5 percent probability to win Game 2. The traditional sportsbook number is the Spurs -9.5 at home tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. That line reflects the overall talent gap between these two teams, even after Minnesota’s impressive result in the opener. The Spurs entered this series as -2000 series favorites, a staggering number that spoke to how good San Antonio was all year.

Anthony Edwards, who missed two games before the series with a knee injury, remains questionable for Game 2. His presence and health are the biggest variable in this series. A healthy Anthony Edwards changes the math significantly for the Timberwolves, while his absence allows San Antonio to game-plan more freely. Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs offense should find their footing in front of a home crowd that wants a response. The prediction markets are betting on them to deliver one.

UFC 328: Markets Favor Chimaev, But the Value Is on Strickland

Khamzat Chimaev makes the first defense of his UFC Middleweight Championship against former champion Sean Strickland on Saturday night, May 9, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Prediction markets have priced Chimaev at 81.5 percent to win, and DraftKings lists him at -550 with Strickland at +410.

Chimaev has never lost as a professional, going 15-0 with a record that includes wins over former champions Kamaru Usman, Robert Whittaker, and Dricus Du Plessis. His UFC 319 title-winning performance against Du Plessis was historically dominant, with 529 total strikes landed and 12 takedowns completed over five rounds. He has never been taken down in a professional fight.

Strickland, at 30-7, is the only person who can say he has beaten an undefeated champion in a similar spot — he upset Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 in September 2023 to claim the belt. The comparison the Strickland camp is leaning on is real: Adesanya was a heavy favorite, the fight was supposed to be a formality, and Strickland made it a grind that ended with a unanimous decision. His 61.1 percent significant strike defense rate is among the best in the active middleweight division, and he has logged five-round main event experience seven times in his career. You can see the latest odds in the live UFC odds section.

The Thunder Are Running Away with Their Series, Too

Oklahoma City wrapped up Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers with a 108-90 victory, and prediction markets immediately reacted, pricing the Thunder at 95.5 percent to advance in the series. Traditional sportsbooks have OKC at -1400 to win the series. The Thunder finished 64-18 in the regular season and went 4-0 against Los Angeles during the regular season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the current -145 favorite for Finals MVP, and the Thunder have been the betting market’s preferred pick to win the NBA title all season. With San Antonio showing a hint of vulnerability after Game 1 and OKC looking dominant, Oklahoma City’s path to a championship has arguably never looked clearer. Futures traders who locked in early have been rewarded as the title odds have continued to shorten. For a look at the full NBA Championship odds, the current market reflects OKC as the clear favorite to go back-to-back.