Brewers vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet for August 30

The Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays meet Friday night in what many are calling a postseason preview. Both clubs sit atop their divisions, and both boast two of the best records in the MLB. Milwaukee leads the NL Central and the MLB at 83-52, while Toronto enters 1st in the AL East at 78-56 and is only 2nd in the MLB.

With strong pitching and very contrasting offensive styles, this series opener at Rogers Centre has plenty of intrigue and is primed for the bets.

Game Details — Brewers Aim to Rebound, Blue Jays Staying Hot

The Brewers are coming off a disappointing series split at home against Arizona, capped by back-to-back losses. After a dominant 14-game win streak earlier this month, Milwaukee has cooled off just a bit as they’ve gone just 5-8 since that run ended. Their offense has sputtered as well lately, going just 2-for-24 with RISP in the last 2 games. Regardless, they hold MLB’s best road record at 48-28 and have been resilient all season.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have won 3 of their last 5, which includes a 9-8 slugfest win over the Twins in their last outing on Wednesday. Toronto owns the best home record in baseball at 50-28 and continues to produce in a big way at the plate. Despite some injuries to their bench, the everyday lineup has stepped up — led by Bo Bichette, who’s riding a 12-game hit streak and batting .438 AVG over that stretch.

This game is set for tonight at Rogers Centre, where the average run total this season is 9.8. That’s high by any standard. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs, with the Blue Jays coming into tonight as -137 favorites on the moneyline and the Brewers at +112. On the run line, Milwaukee is +1.5 priced at -194, while Toronto is -1.5 priced at +157.

The bookmakers have these odds fairly tight, which feels right given how these teams are doing as of late. A couple of weeks ago, we would’ve seen the Brewers as the favorites, but given how they’ve slowed down, this makes sense.

Pitching Matchup: Peralta’s Dominance vs Bieber’s Comeback

Milwaukee sends RHP Freddy Peralta with his 15-5 record and 2.68 ERA to the mound. Peralta has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the league this year, and his August numbers are absolutely ridiculous — 22 innings, just 1 earned run, and 26 Ks in 4 starts. Even in a losing effort last time out against San Francisco, he gave up only 2 runs over 5 innings. Frankly, he’s not the reason the Brewers are losing games — the bats are.

Peralta has a strong track record of going deep into games while keeping traffic off the bases. His WHIP of 1.10 is tied for 16th-best in MLB, and he ranks in the top 20 in ERA and strikeouts. The only concern might be how his offense backs him up, as Milwaukee has been ice-cold at the plate the last couple of games.

Toronto counters with Shane Bieber with a 1-0 record and a 1.50 ERA, making just his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. Bieber looked excellent in his debut, striking out 9 Marlins across 6 innings of one-run ball. He took everyone by surprise as he had full command of his pitches and showed no signs of rust. But with only 6 innings pitched in the last 16 months, there’s a lot of unknown heading into this one, especially since the Brewers are a much better team than the Marlins.

Bieber has faced Milwaukee only twice in his career, holding a 1-1 record with a 4.50 ERA. Unlike Peralta, he might be on a pitch limit or see an early hook if he starts showing some signs of fatigue. He threw 87 pitches in his first game, and we don’t see him going too far beyond that tonight.

Stats Breakdown — Blue Jays Lead in Bats, Brewers in Arms

Toronto has the edge on offense, and the stats back that statement up. The Blue Jays lead MLB in team batting average with a .268 and rank 4th in runs scored. Their 1,228 total hits and .431 SLG rank near the top of the league as well, and they’ve been hot lately — scoring at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Bo Bichette, with his .307 AVG and 80 RBI, and George Springer, with his .303 AVG and 24 HRs, are carrying the offense, with plenty of support from the bottom of the order on top of that.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, ranks third in ERA at 3.63 and WHIP at 1.23. Peralta anchors a deep rotation, but the loss of closer Trevor Megill to an arm injury could affect the bullpen’s ability to close out tight games. At the plate, the Brewers are middle of the pack in average with a .258 and OBP with .324. Christian Yelich has 26 dingers and 90 RBIs, but he hasn’t gotten much help lately. Milwaukee’s recent issues with RISP are becoming a concern.

Toronto’s lineup has the edge in slugging (.431 vs .407), OBP (.337 vs .324), and home run rate. Milwaukee’s pitching staff may limit the damage early in the game, but the Blue Jays’ consistency at home and ability to string together hits puts pressure on opposing arms late in games.

Final Prediction — Toronto Has the Edge at Home

This is a close matchup on paper, but we’re seeing several key factors tilt this toward the Blue Jays.

Toronto has the better offense right now, and they’re playing at home, where they’ve been nothing less than dominant. Milwaukee’s bats have gone quiet, and though Peralta is dealing like a boss, he can’t do it all himself. Bieber’s limited sample size is a gamble, but if he looks anything like he did in Miami, the Brewers could be in for a long night.

• Brewers vs Blue Jays Prediction: Blue Jays 4, Brewers 3
• Best Bet: Take Toronto Blue Jays -137 on the moneyline

This bet is safer than the run line, given the pitching matchup and recent form, but still gives good value given how consistent Toronto has been at home. 

The Brewers are still a great team, but they’ve lost a little bit of rhythm over the past week. Toronto’s ability to wear down pitchers, combined with Milwaukee’s shaky offense and recent bullpen injury, gives the Jays the edge in a low-scoring, tightly contested game.