Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for August 21

The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs square off for the final time in their season series this afternoon at Wrigley Field. The matchup is currently owned by the Cubs 7-5 after they’ve stormed back into contention with 3 straight wins in this series. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:20 PM ET, and this one has all the ingredients of a critical late-August divisional clash. There’s a lot on the line for both of these teams, and each win (or loss) can have huge implications on their postseason aspirations.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Bookmakers have the Cubs as -137 favorites on the moneyline, while the Brewers are priced at +113 to win outright. The run line favors Chicago at -1.5, priced at +167, while the Brewers are getting +1.5 at -205. The total is set at 6.5 runs, with the over juiced at -124 and the under sitting at +102.

Chicago has gained tons of ground in the NL Central during this series, going from 9 games behind to only 6 in the division. Milwaukee still leads the division at 79-48, but the Cubs, sitting at 73-54, have cut the gap to just 6 games. While the Brewers are riding a 3-game skid, the Cubs have won 3 straight and seem to have flipped the switch heading into the final stretch. 

Sure, the Brewers are one of the hottest teams in the MLB, but somehow, the Cubs have their number dialed in.

Pitching Matchup and Team Breakdown

On the mound for Milwaukee is Quinn Priester, who brings an 11-2 record and 3.48 ERA into the start. Priester has logged 124 innings of work this season and has given up 100 hits and 40 walks, while striking out 114. He’s been consistent all year, though the 17 HRs he’s allowed into the stands just go to show that he can be vulnerable if he misses his spots.

For Chicago, Shota Imanaga counters with a sharp 8-5 record and a respectable 3.06 ERA. His 0.95 WHIP is without a doubt elite, and over 103 innings, he’s surrendered just 85 hits and 18 walks while putting up 79 Ks. He doesn’t have the overpowering strikeout numbers like Skenes or Wheeler, but he rarely lets innings spiral. His command is dominant and precise, and he thrives at Wrigley, where run support hasn’t been an issue lately.

Milwaukee holds the edge in several season-long categories. They’re batting .258 as a team compared to Chicago’s .249, and have scored 653 runs, which is 25 more than the Cubs. The Brewers are also near the top of the league in stolen bases and rank just 4th in ERA at 3.58, compared to the Cubs’ 3.81. Milwaukee’s .229 OBA and better walk discipline are more indicators of their overall balance.

But despite those insane season numbers, it’s been Chicago controlling the tempo this week. We simply can’t overlook this fact when we’re putting money on a game. The Cubs’ offense has come alive, with Seiya Suzuki, who has 27 HRs and 86 RBIs, and Nico Hoerner with his .289 AVG, leading the way. Christian Yelich remains the Brewers’ top bat with 26 HR, 87 RBI, and Sal Frelick has quietly been a tough out, hitting .298 with a .363 OBP. As you’d expect, both teams have some stars in their lineups that keep them going.

Looking at recent form, however, Chicago has all the momentum. The Cubs took the last 3 games of the series by scores of 4-1, 6-4, and 4-3, each time shutting the door when it mattered most. Milwaukee opened the series with a 7-0 shutout, and we thought they were making a statement, but they haven’t looked the same since. It’s undeniable that they have what it takes to grind out a win, but with each passing day, it seems like Milwaukee just can’t figure out how to do it in the Windy City.

Wrigley Field has seen 8.7 runs per game on average this season, but the under has hit in more games than not, going 30-28-5. Given how both starting pitchers have been performing so far and the betting total set low at 6.5, the bookmakers are expecting a lower-scoring game again. That said, the offenses have been opportunistic, especially Chicago’s.

Prediction — Cubs Stay Hot and Take the Series

Milwaukee has better numbers on paper, but the eye test and current trends tell a completely different story. The Cubs are firing on all cylinders and clicking in all the right ways, and have owned the late innings in this series. Imanaga’s control, combined with Chicago’s clutch bats, gives the Cubs a major edge heading into the finale between these NL Central foes.

On the other side of the field, Milwaukee hasn’t looked like itself the past 3 games, and the Cubs know how to capitalize on that. Even with Priester on the mound, they’ve failed to produce enough runs to support good pitching to begin with. They’ve also allowed the Cubs to chip away with small-ball, soft contact, and timely extra-base hits. Momentum matters in August, and the Cubs clearly have it heading into today’s matinee game.

• Cubs vs Brewers Prediction: Cubs 4, Brewers 2
• Best Bet: Cubs on the moneyline at -137

The safest and smartest play here is the Cubs on the moneyline at -137. They’ve won 3 straight against the Brewers, they’re at home, and Imanaga has been dominant at Wrigley. Of course, if you’re looking for a little more juice to sweeten your bet slip, the under 6.5 at +102 is worth a look with 2 high-performing pitchers on the bump.