Thursday’s MLB slate is loaded with starting pitchers who miss bats, and three of them stand out as strong bets to clear their strikeout totals. Grant Holmes gets a White Sox lineup that chases, Gavin Williams draws a Giants team that’s been overmatched by velocity all year, and Jacob deGrom is finally looking like peak deGrom against a Nationals club near the bottom of the league in contact rate.

Each of these lines sits in a spot where the season-long numbers say the over is live. Here’s the breakdown on all three, leg by leg.

Grant Holmes Over 3.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox

Grant Holmes has quietly turned into one of the better mid-rotation arms in the National League, sitting at 7-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 97 strikeouts across 117.2 innings this season — good for a strikeout roughly every 1.2 innings. Against a Chicago lineup that ranks among the league’s most strikeout-prone units, a line set at just 3.5 punchouts is about as soft as strikeout props get for a full-time starter.

Holmes doesn’t need a huge night to clear this number — he’s topped 3.5 strikeouts in the vast majority of his starts this year, and the White Sox have been one of the easier lineups for opposing starters to work through all season. Barring an unusually short outing, this is one of the safer plays on the board.

If you want to line-shop before locking this in, check live MLB odds to see how this number is moving closer to first pitch.

Gavin Williams Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants

Gavin Williams has been one of the more underrated strikeout arms in baseball this season, sitting at 11-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 149 innings pitched — and a strikeout rate near 29%. That’s elite swing-and-miss stuff, and it plays especially well against a Giants offense that ranks near the bottom of MLB in team strikeout rate against.

Williams has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in most of his recent turns, including double-digit strikeout nights against Arizona and Cincinnati earlier this month. San Francisco’s lineup doesn’t have the bat-to-ball skills to consistently shorten his outings, and Cleveland has no reason to pull him early in a game they need in the standings. The volume and swing-and-miss combination make this one of the stronger strikeout plays on the slate.

Jacob deGrom Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals

Jacob deGrom has battled through an up-and-down 2026, but the underlying stuff has stayed elite — he’s racked up 147 strikeouts in 120.7 innings this season, a strikeout rate near 29.5% that ranks among the better marks for any qualified starter. At 8-8 with a 3.95 ERA, the box score doesn’t always reflect just how nasty his pitch mix still is on a given night.

Washington’s lineup has been one of the more punch-out-prone groups in the National League all season, and deGrom has shown he can still miss bats in bunches when his fastball is playing — a big reason his season strikeout rate remains well clear of league average. A line of 5.5 strikeouts leaves plenty of room for a pitcher averaging north of six per outing, especially against a lineup this vulnerable to swing-and-miss stuff.

Lock These In

All three of these starters carry real swing-and-miss equity against lineups that are especially prone to chasing and missing. The volume, the matchups, and the season-long strikeout rates all point the same direction.

Check current lines at your sportsbook before betting, since strikeout props can shift closer to first pitch — but the season-long trends behind all three of these arms make them worth a look on Thursday’s board.