Guardians vs. Twins Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for May 21

The Minnesota Twins are back home Tuesday afternoon with momentum on their side after one of the hottest stretches in baseball this season. After winning an insane 13 straight games, the Twins finally came back to Earth with a 3-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday.

But their recent surge has vaulted them back into the AL Central race. They’ll look to keep the heat on the Cleveland Guardians in this showdown at Target Field.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

This series is a big one for both clubs despite it being fairly early in the season.

Monday’s game was suspended in the 4th inning with the Twins up 2-1 due to rain and will be completed before this one starts. That gives today’s regularly scheduled game even more weight as the teams battle for ground in a tight AL Central race as either one of them can walk away with 2 wins.

Minnesota will give the ball to Chris Paddack who sits at 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA. He’s been quietly effective on the bump, but not stellar as he’s limiting damage with a low WHIP of 1.18 across 46.2 innings. He allowed only 33 hits and struck out 38, showing he has excellent command and efficiency. Paddack has turned in several strong outings lately and gives the Twins a decent option as they try to bounce back from Sunday’s loss and hopefully get back on a winning streak.

The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams who sits at 3-2 and a 4.29 ERA. While Williams has the edge in wins, the deeper numbers tell a different story. He’s walked 24 batters and allowed 51 hits in just 42 innings, resulting in a fairly bloated 1.64 WHIP. That’s not the kind of profile you want against a team as locked in at the plate as Minnesota has been for the past 2 weeks.

While these pitchers look similar overall for the season, Paddack’s last game against Baltimore he threw 89 pitches over 7 innings and only gave up 3 hits. He looks locked in coming into today’s game.

Odds and Betting Lines

Bookmakers have responded to Minnesota’s surge by making them the favorite at -122, and it’s not hard to see why. The Twins are trending up while Cleveland is moving in the opposite direction. The Guardians have dropped 4 straight, and their offense has gone cold at the worst possible time.

Despite holding the series edge 3-1 so far this season, it’s the recency that makes the Guardians the +102 underdog. It seems like even the sportsbooks don’t think this surge for the Twins was a fluke.

Analysis and Prediction

The Twins have been one of the best stories in baseball over the last few weeks.

Before losing Sunday afternoon, they had won 13 straight games — their longest streak since 1991. During that stretch, they were dominant on both sides of the ball. They even set a franchise record with 34 consecutive scoreless innings. Minnesota isn’t just winning; they’re doing it cleanly and convincingly. It just goes to show that this isn’t the same Twins team the Guardians faced in their first series.

Byron Buxton has rediscovered his rhythm at the plate and he leads the team with 10 home runs and 27 RBIs. He’s also hitting .261 and playing solid defense in center field. Ryan Jeffers has emerged as a clutch bat with a bit of a flair for big moments. His home run against Milwaukee in their final win of the streak was a no-doubt shot that sent Target Field into a frenzy. Kody Clemens has also delivered in key spots which only helps to extend rallies and bring in runs from the lower half of the lineup.

From a pitching standpoint, Minnesota has a clear edge. The Twins rank 3rd in MLB with a 3.20 ERA and have held opponents to a .228 AVG. Their bullpen has been solid as well, consistently holding late leads. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 20th in ERA at 4.14 and is allowing opposing hitters to bat .260 OBA. That kind of disparity adds up quickly in a tight game.

Cleveland’s offense is also struggling at the worst time possible. Despite having Kyle Manzardo, who has 10 home runs, and Steven Kwan, who is batting .311 AVG, the Guardians lack consistent production from the rest of the lineup. They’ve scored just 2 runs across their last 2 games, and their strikeout-to-walk ratio is among the worst in the league.

The Twins, in contrast, don’t necessarily rely on just one or two bats. They’ve shown they can manufacture runs from top to bottom of the lineup, and that depth makes a big difference when facing pitchers like Gavin Williams, who has struggled to keep runners off base. Williams’s command issues could come back to haunt him against a patient lineup that knows how to capitalize on mistakes and they’ve shown that time and time again over the past few weeks.

Today’s game also carries the added wrinkle of being the 2nd game of the day for both clubs due to the suspended game being completed earlier. That could mean more bullpen action, which again favors Minnesota. The Twins have gotten some quality innings from their relievers all year, and their depth could be the difference-maker if either starter gets into trouble early.

Minnesota has been the better team across the board recently. They’re simply more consistent at the plate, better on the mound, and sharper defensively. Even though Cleveland leads the season series 3-1, the Twins have actually outscored them 21-12 over those 4 games. That tells you Minnesota has had the better quality of play and just hasn’t always cashed in.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Twins 4, Guardians 2
• Best Bet: Minnesota Twins moneyline at -122

We expect to see the Twins continue their dominance in the second game of this double-ish header.  They’ve changed how they play baseball and it’s undoubtedly working for them.