San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

Friday night baseball at Wrigley always always brings the flair, but this time, the Padres roll in red-hot and, of course, undefeated. San Diego has ripped off 7 straight wins to start the season, including sweeps over both the Braves and the Guardians — neither of which are pushover teams. Now, they head to Chicago with a ton of momentum and a bullpen that’s been nearly untouchable.

The Cubs aren’t exactly struggling, either. They’re coming off a series sweep themselves, smacking the A’s around for 3 games in Sacramento, but, it’s the A’s. However, this Padres team is a different animal. Their pitching has been nothing less than elite, their bats are undoubtedly alive, and they’ve already silenced some serious competition.

So, who’s going to take game 1 of this weekend’s series in Chicago? It’s feeling like the Padres to us, but we’ll explain.

Odds, Starters, and What to Know

Chicago comes in as the favorite with a moneyline around -170, while San Diego sits in the +142 range. That’s surprising considering how each team is currently trending. The total is set fairly low at 6.5 runs with the under favored, which speaks volumes about the pitching matchup.

Shota Imanaga gets the ball for the Cubs. He’s been great, coming off a 7-inning gem against the Diamondbacks where he gave up just a single run. He’s new to MLB, but so far the early signs point to him handling the pressure just fine. That said, he’s now facing a Padres lineup that doesn’t chase nearly much and has been putting balls in play. This definitely isn’t the D-Backs this time around.

For San Diego, Randy Vásquez will toe the rubber. He tossed 6 shutout innings in his debut against Atlanta, working around traffic and showing he can keep his cool in tough spots. In that game, he only allowed 4 hits. The Cubs have some power threats, but Vásquez has the kind of stuff that plays well against righty-heavy lineups.

It’s strength vs. strength here — Chicago’s offense just put up 35 runs in 3 games, but the Padres’ pitching staff has allowed only 11 total runs in 7 games. That makes for an interesting matchup.

San Diego’s Formula Is Working

The Padres haven’t just been winning — they’ve been absolutely suffocating teams. 3 shutouts in 7 games is no joke, and that bullpen has been totally lights-out. Once they get a lead, it’s game over. Opponents are hitting under .200 against San Diego’s relievers, and their command has been sharp as a tack.

What makes this team dangerous is their balance. Tatis Jr. is definitely locked in at the plate, hitting nearly .450 through the early stretch of games. But he’s not carrying the team. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado are all contributing, and the lineup has been wearing pitchers down by grinding at-bats and making adjustments mid-game.

It’s also worth noting how San Diego has managed late innings. They’ve held leads, they’ve rallied late when needed, and they’ve looked comfortable in tight games. That goes to show they’re not a fluke. That kind of early-season poise matters when you’re going up against a team that thrives on big innings, like the Cubs.

Cubs Are Hot, But Can They Stay Hot?

Chicago’s offense has been loud and everyone is watching that. Seiya Suzuki is crushing right now with 4 dingers in his last 5 games. They’ve been teeing off on pitchers who miss spots, and their lineup is deep enough to make any mistake costly.

But they’ve also faced some shaky pitching, so that has to be considered. The Athletics aren’t exactly loaded with the best arms, and those big numbers came against bottom-tier rotations. The Padres are a different story. You won’t get many mistakes from this pitching staff. If Suzuki doesn’t stay red-hot, Chicago could have a hard time piecing together enough offense to get a win.

Imanaga has looked sharp, of course, but this is his first real test against a lineup that can adjust quickly and make him pay for any mistakes. The Guardians and Braves both struggled to keep up with the Padres’ pace. The Cubs need to strike early, because once the Padres bullpen takes over, runs dry up.

Padres vs Cubs Prediction

This feels like a line that’s not caught up to the reality on the field.

San Diego is undefeated for a reason — they’re pitching well, hitting situationally, and playing error-free defense. Now, that’s not just luck, that’s a team that’s locked in already. While others are still getting their feet under them, the Padres are rolling and getting a head start on the season.

Even on the road, even against a hot Cubs squad, we’re backing the Padres on the moneyline. They’ve already taken down stronger teams than this and done it convincingly. Until they show a crack, there’s no reason to fade them and tonight’s not that night. 

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Padres 3, Cubs 2
• Best Bet: Padres ML (+140)

We really like this bet because of that plus money. Even if the odds were less we’d take it, but the +140 is just the icing on the cake for this game. We’re thinking that the streak stays alive, Padres find a way, and they walk away with an 8-0 start on the season.