We are just a few weeks away from the 1st kickoff of the 2023 NFL season. I, for one, cannot wait to have football back in my life as we grind out the upcoming dog days of summer. We are going tackle some player totals that we like as we look forward to the 2023 season.
We will be taking into account some important factors when handicapping these totals. Strength of schedule will be one of these factors. Players may face easier teams on their schedule in terms of defensive matchups. Injury history will be another factor.
This is likely to play into some under plays when looking at the possibility to get a number that we feel may be attainable for a player, pending they play an entire season. Changes in coaching staff and contract status will be a couple of the other factors.
We may see a player that has put up decent numbers in years past but now has a head coach or coordinator that has a history of utilizing said player’s position more.
The opposite can remain true as well. With contract status, we will be leaning on going under on players that have signed fat contracts and leaning over on players that are in the last year of their current contracts.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 3,500.5 yards
Lamar has yet to even surpass 3,200 passing yards in a season since he joined the league. Even worse, he has yet to play a full season since his rookie year.
His last 2 seasons were just 12 games long, in which his best passing season was for just 2880 yards. The man can still certainly get it done with his legs, as he is averaging over 850 yards per season on the ground.
That does not help him attain this over and we believe we will be cashing this ticket rather easily.
Josh Allen UNDER 4,350.5 yards
We do not like what seems to be brewing with the Buffalo offense this year. Stefon Diggs seems to be one bad game away from giving up on the team. He has been frustrated with how the offense performed during the latter part of 2022-2023 and made his continued frustrations known during the beginning of training camp.
Now, for Allen himself, he has surpassed this number just twice in his 5-year career. He did that with a seemingly happy #1 receiver in Diggs.
The team also bulked up their backfield by signing both Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, which could be a sign that they plan to run the ball a bit more this season. Either way, we believe Allen will once again come in under this total.
Joe Burrow OVER 4,425.5 yards
Joe Burrow is quickly becoming the top name in the league when it comes to pure passing. He is entering just his 4th year and has gone over this total in back-to-back years.
The only time he failed was in his rookie season, in which he only played 10 games. He still has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside, and they added Irv Smith to be his prime tight end target.
We don’t see Burrow nor the Bengals regressing this season, and the over here will certainly be attainable.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 28.5 TDs
We know everyone is loving how the Jets offense is looking now that Rodgers has arrived. However, he is working with an entirely new scheme and group of pass catchers.
In Green Bay, over the last 6 seasons, Rodgers came in under this total in 4 of those seasons. As for the Jets themselves, they have not had a QB throw for more than 28 touchdowns since 2015, when Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed 31.
The last time prior to Fitzpatrick? It was Vinny Testaverde all the way back in 1998. Now, we get that Rodgers now is probably still better than 95% of the QBs the Jets had during those years, but the fact remains that Rodgers is in his twilight and working with new personnel, which makes us lean under here.
Justin Herbert OVER 29.5 TDs
Yes, Herbert failed to surpass this number last season, and yes, it was by far the worst season of his short career. That said, we are not going to let one blip on the radar scare us away from taking what we believe is a discounted number here.
The other reason we are high on Herbert this season is because of the change at offensive coordinator. They let Joe Lombardi go and brought in Kellen Moore.
Moore, who was with Dallas since 2019, called plays for an offense that finished with an average of 31.5 passing touchdowns per season.
Russell Wilson OVER 24.5 TDs
I don’t think anyone saw the kind of season we saw from Wilson and the Broncos coming last year. It was an absolute disaster on all fronts.
Over the offseason, the Broncos went out and brought Sean Payton in to run the show as their new head coach. He was great with Drew Brees in New Orleans and is a fan of a passing offense.
Wilson, himself, had gone 5 straight seasons over this total while in Seattle. We believe Payton will help him get back on track, and 25 passing touchdowns will be well within Wilson’s reach this year.