49ers at Vikings: Best Underdog Player Props for MNF
A week after dropping their first game of the season as 9.5-point favorites on the road in Cleveland, the 49ers are bruised in both ego and their roster heading into Week 7’s Monday Night Football clash with the Vikings.
Key players for the Niners have not practiced through Thursday of this week, including Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, and Dre Greenlaw. The Vikings will again miss OLB Marcus Davenport, who was placed on IR following an ankle injury in Week 6.
San Francisco is favored by a touchdown at US Bank Stadium and has all the advantages on paper against Minnesota. They’re tops in scoring defense and point differential in the NFL and lead the NFC in scoring with a 4-0 record against conference opponents.
Minnesota, similar to last season, has a point differential close to zero (-6) but has paid for it with their record in 2023. The Vikings were 13-4 in 2022 with a negative point differential (-3) and were seen as a flukey contender before falling to New York at home in the first round of the playoffs.
These teams have played twice since 2020, including a Divisional round playoff meeting, and San Fran won both while rushing for almost 200 yards per game with Elijah Mitchell (2021) and Tevin Coleman (2020) leading the way.
Despite the lack of scoring, our MNF prop best bets finished 2-0 in Week 6 on a pair of player total overs, one from each team. The Cowboys won against the Chargers in LA 20-17 when the total closed around 49.5, but Dak Prescott connected with Tony Pollard on a 60-yard pass to open the fourth quarter and finished above 259.5 yards on the evening.
LA’s Josh Palmer had a night of missed opportunities due to penalties negating several catches, but he too got the job done and surpassed his receiving yard total of 53.5.
We want to shout out the Underdog Fantasy app, where our prop plays for MNF Week 7 will be played, and present our full card next.
Alexander Mattison UNDER 45.5 Rushing Yards
Mattison’s total reflects the strength of the 49ers’ rush defense as much as it is an indictment of the Vikings’ ability to move the ball on the ground.
Aside from two games against the Panthers and Chargers this season, Mattison has combined for 45 carries and 132 yards (2.9 ypc). This includes last week’s performance against Chicago, in which he bashed himself into the Bears’ defense 18 times for 44 yards.
Mattison still has yet to score on the ground this season, and we expect him and the Vikings to struggle to gain yards on the ground Monday night.
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards
The speedy receiver is fourth in the NFL this year in yards per catch and is 16th in receiving yards despite playing fewer games than 12 of the 15 players ahead of him on that list. Aiyuk has seen his targets per game rise 10% year-over-year, up to 7.4 in 2023, while his catch rate has remained close to 68%.
With McCaffrey and Samuel playing at less than 100% at best on Monday, Aiyuk should continue to be a go-to option for Brock Purdy.
He saw a season-high 10 targets against Cleveland last Sunday and could reach that mark again in this matchup. We like Aiyuk to fly past this total.
Kirk Cousins OVER 0.5 Total Yards (Underdog Special)
This is why we love Underdog! It’s a little easy winner to throw into your parlay to double your odds if all three plays hit, and it doesn’t cost us a thing.
Cousins’ line for passing and rushing yards is posted at 238.5, so we should be okay here.
Sports Betting Contributor
Nicholas brings over 10 years of sports betting and DFS experience to our team. He’s a player prop specialist who holds a degree from Penn State University. He enjoys a nice round of golf in his downtime and covers the NFL, NBA, baseball, CFB, and CBB. Mr. Berault is currently on a great run with his NFL best bets, so be sure to check those out!