4 Best Bets for NFL Week 6

Week 5 brought another round of underdogs barking, with the teams getting points from sportsbooks covering in 10 of 15 games (TEN @ WSH was a pick ’em). That brings NFL underdogs to 45-32-2 this season, a 58.4% win percentage. NFL unders cashed in nine of the 16 games last week, meaning for the season under bettors would be 45-35 over the course of the first five weeks in 2022.

Last week also regrettably provided us with a reverse sweep. The Steelers couldn’t cover the spread by a mile to Buffalo, the Chargers and Browns scored nearly 60 points, and the Falcons and Bucs couldn’t manage to score 40 points combined. That brings our record on the season to 8-8, and we’re ready to bounce back in Week 6 with another round of NFL best bets.

New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers: UNDER 45.5

Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet

Both these teams are in the middle third of scoring offense and defense through the first five weeks of the season, which means a total in the mid-40s makes sense. Rodgers and the Packers are returning from a loss in London to the Giants in which they managed just 3 points from the middle of the second quarter on.

The Jets may provide an opportunity for Green Bay’s ‘get right game,’ but it remains to be seen if Rodgers can consistently provide a threat to defenses with the weapons around him in 2022. That, along with a regression to the mean from the Jets’ 40-point output against Miami, compels us to play the under in Green Bay.

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Pittsburgh Steelers: UNDER 44.5

Best Available Odds: -110 at Caesars

The Steelers have proven that they can’t be trusted to score 20 points, and Tom Brady and the Bucs have not been able to capitalize on scoring opportunities this season as they did in previous seasons.

The Bucs rank 17th in red zone TD percentage while the Steelers rank 25th, and both teams sit in the top 11 in field goals per game in 2022. We expect stalled drives and plenty of kicker appearances again on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers +10.5 @ LA Rams

Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet

LA is experiencing the Super Bowl hangover that many teams do, and don’t look recognizable despite many of the same names still wearing their uniform. Carolina is traveling across the country a week after getting crushed on their home field and firing their head coach.

This pick is based on a combination of the public still leaning into the Rams not being a shadow of their 2021 selves and the bump that teams normally get from a coaching change. The Panthers keep this within 10 to cover in Los Angeles.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs +3

Best Available Odds: -120 at BetMGM

The Kansas City Chiefs are home underdogs. This line implies that the Bills are six to seven points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field, which is a stretch at best. Mahomes has been as good this season as any he’s had as a pro despite not being as familiar with his receivers.

Buffalo has been overwhelming in several of their games this season, but Kansas City is 7-2-1 against the spread since 2018 as an underdog. Combine that record with the fact that the Bills head into a bye in Week 7, and we’ve got more than enough to justify backing Mahomes and company at Arrowhead.