The NFL season kicks off in unusual fashion this week, with the 49ers and Rams opening 2026 on Thursday Night Football in Melbourne, Australia — an 8:35pm ET start on Netflix that puts two of the NFC’s most explosive passing games on a global stage. Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy are both coming off big statistical seasons, and this NFC West rematch (the Rams throttled San Francisco 42-26 in their last meeting) sets up as a shootout from the opening whistle. If you’re looking to get a bet down on the action, checking the latest live NFL odds before kickoff is a good first step.

That means the passing props are where the real value is hiding this week. We’ve dug into the numbers on both starting quarterbacks and landed on three bets we like — two over totals and a touchdown prop — all built around a simple idea: these two offenses are going to throw the ball a lot, and the defenses across from them have shown real cracks against the pass.

Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 Passing Yards

Stafford was one of the best quarterbacks in football last season, throwing for 4,707 yards across 17 games — a 276.9 yards-per-game average that ranked second in the NFL. He completed 65.0% of his throws and posted a ridiculous 46 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions, numbers that put him firmly in the MVP conversation for most of the year. He had a passing touchdown in every single game he played last season, a level of consistency that matters just as much as the yardage number itself.

The matchup only helps his case here. San Francisco’s pass defense allowed real chunks of yardage last season, and the 49ers are dealing with real questions on that side of the ball entering Week 1 — Nick Bosa was held out of practice this week in Melbourne, which is never a good sign for a pass rush trying to get after a quarterback of Stafford’s caliber. Without consistent pressure, Stafford has shown he’ll pick apart a defense methodically, especially with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both healthy and ready to work underneath and down the field.

Averaging nearly 12 yards more per game than this posted line, and doing it against a defense that has its own issues to sort out, makes 265.5 a very gettable number for Stafford in a game that projects as a track meet.

Brock Purdy Over 244.5 Passing Yards

Purdy’s 2025 season was shortened to nine games, but the efficiency was outstanding: 2,167 yards, a 240.8 yards-per-game average, a 69.4% completion rate, and 20 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He also chipped in 147 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, showing he’s more than capable of hurting a defense with his legs when the pocket breaks down — something worth keeping in mind against a Rams defense that has to account for both threats.

The matchup here is the real selling point. Los Angeles ranked 19th in the NFL in passing yards allowed last season at 216.7 per game and gave up 26 passing touchdowns — hardly a shutdown unit, especially through the air. Purdy’s receiving corps took some hits this offseason with Ricky Pearsall landing on injured reserve and Brandon Aiyuk not factoring into the mix, but that’s actually pushed more volume toward the players still standing: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and new addition Mike Evans, who’s expected to suit up Thursday after working through a minor groin issue in camp.

With that much target share concentrated among three proven pass-catchers and a Rams secondary that gave up yardage at an above-average clip in 2025, Purdy clearing 244.5 yards in a game San Francisco may need to throw to keep pace is a strong bet.

Brock Purdy 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-102)

This one is about pure consistency. Purdy threw a touchdown pass in 8 of his 9 games last season, and in 6 of those 8 games, he threw multiple touchdown passes. That’s not a hot streak — that’s close to his baseline performance when he’s on the field and has his usual weapons around him.

The reason this prop stands out at close to even money is the target mix Purdy has to work with. Kittle is a proven red-zone weapon who’s worked his way back from a torn Achilles and looked full-go in individual drills this week. Deebo Samuel remains a matchup nightmare who can score from anywhere on the field. And now Evans, a six-time Pro Bowler who was the first player in NFL history to open his career with 11 straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, gives Purdy a genuine outside threat in the red zone that this offense hasn’t had in years. Three different players capable of scoring, against a defense that allowed 26 passing touchdowns a season ago, is exactly the kind of setup that produces multi-touchdown games.

Health is worth watching — Evans and Kittle were both limited earlier in camp — but all indications out of San Francisco are that both are trending toward playing Thursday. If they’re on the field, Purdy has more than enough around him to hit this number.

The Bottom Line

This Thursday night opener in Melbourne has all the makings of a high-scoring, pass-heavy affair, and these three quarterback prop bets are built to cash if that’s how the game plays out.

Two proven, high-volume quarterbacks against defenses that struggled to slow down the pass in 2025 — that’s a combination worth betting on to open the season.