Quarterbacks are the easiest players to bet on if you are new to props, because the math is simple: how many yards will he throw for? This Sunday’s Week 7 slate has three passers with strong cases to clear their yardage lines, and each one comes with a clear, easy-to-explain reason.
We went through the matchups, the recent box scores and the pass defenses these quarterbacks are facing. The lines below are the consensus numbers from Friday and can move before kickoff, so check your book before you bet.
Jordan Love Over 281.5 Passing Yards: Facing the League’s Worst Pass Defense
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (4-2) visit the Detroit Lions (3-2) at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX, and the number is 281.5 yards at -115 on both sides. Love already has 1,684 yards this season, which works out to 280.7 per game, so the line sits almost exactly on his average. That is the first clue. When the line equals the average, the matchup should decide which side you take.
The matchup is about as good as it gets for a passer. Detroit is giving up 297.4 passing yards per game, the worst mark in the NFL. Love also leads the league in passing yards on throws of 10 or more air yards and on throws of 20 or more air yards, and Next Gen Stats has the Lions allowing the most EPA per play on throws of 20-plus air yards. In plain terms, Love likes to throw deep, and deep throws are where Detroit has had the most trouble.
His recent results do swing, which is why this is not a lock. Love threw for 276 yards against Dallas on 23-of-41, then 367 against Chicago on 25-of-31, then 197 at Tampa Bay. Green Bay’s pass catchers have also dropped a number of deep balls, so his total could be even higher. The main risk is pass protection against Aidan Hutchinson, who has 32 pressures through five games. Still, Detroit’s offense is averaging 32.8 points per game, so Green Bay may need to keep throwing to keep pace.
Joe Burrow Over 260.5 Passing Yards: An Accurate Passer With Elite Targets
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) travel to face the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at 1 p.m. ET, with Burrow’s yardage line at 260.5 (-115 both ways). Through five games he has 1,361 yards for 272.2 per game, and his 71.4% completion rate is the highest of any quarterback with at least five starts.
The game log tells a mixed but encouraging story. Burrow threw for 282 yards at Pittsburgh, 428 against Jacksonville on 54 attempts, and 190 at Miami. That Miami number looks low, but he still tossed four touchdowns in a 31-24 win. The Jacksonville game shows what can happen when Cincinnati falls behind: Burrow’s volume can pile up quickly.
Baltimore’s pass defense ranks 12th in yards allowed at 210.3 per game, so this is a fair matchup rather than a soft one, and last December the Ravens shut out the Bengals while holding Burrow to 225 passing yards. But the Ravens’ secondary also has to deal with Ja’Marr Chase (81.5 receiving yards line) and Tee Higgins (65.5). Chase has averaged 175 receiving yards per game against Baltimore over the past two seasons, and Burrow’s last visit to M&T Bank Stadium in 2024 produced 428 yards and four touchdowns. Lamar Jackson was limited in practice this week, and if Baltimore’s offense is less explosive, Cincinnati may have to throw more to keep up.
Bryce Young Over 253.5 Passing Yards: The League’s Top Passing Attack
The Carolina Panthers (3-2) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) at 1 p.m. ET, with Bryce Young’s yardage line at 253.5 (-114 both ways). Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point favorite in the consensus market and the total is 44.5, which is lower than the other two games here. That could scare some bettors away, but Young’s recent numbers say this line is too low.
Young leads the NFL with 309.8 passing yards per game and 1,549 total, with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. That is a huge jump from his earlier seasons: he averaged 179.8 yards as a rookie, 171.6 in his second year and 188.2 in 2025. Carolina’s offense is second in the league at 404.4 yards per game, and the team has the top-ranked passing attack.
His last three starts: 329 yards against Detroit, 281 at Philadelphia, and 291 at Cleveland the game before that. Each one clears 253.5 by at least 27 yards. Tetairoa McMillan (70.5 receiving yards line) and Jalen Coker (66.5) lead the receiving group. Tampa Bay’s pass defense is 19th, allowing 224.0 yards per game. The Bucs’ quarterback situation is uncertain, with Baker Mayfield trying to return from a dislocated thumb and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels as the alternative. If Tampa Bay’s offense struggles, Carolina could lean on the run late, and that is the one real risk to this over.
Sunday’s Edge: The Three QB Bets
All three passers have a clear reason to clear their numbers: Love meets the NFL’s worst pass defense, Burrow is the most accurate passer in the league with top-tier targets, and Young has cleared this number in each of his last three starts. Before you lock anything in, compare prices on the live NFL odds page.
- Jordan Love OVER 281.5 passing yards (-115)
- Joe Burrow OVER 260.5 passing yards (-115)
- Bryce Young OVER 253.5 passing yards (-114)
Lines and odds shift throughout the week, so check your book for the latest number and shop for the best price before kickoff. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
