What a time it was for our NFL best bets during the Super Wild Card games. A 5-1 record last weekend, including 3-0 on Sunday’s best bets, brings our season-long record to 38-27, or 58.5%, dating back to Week 1.
The Buffalo Bills won a close, hard-fought game against the Dolphins but led at halftime, and when the final whistle sounded to cash our first play. That was followed by an outright win for the Giants as 3-point underdogs and concluded with our under bet in the Ravens-Bengals game cashing by a point.
The Divisional round pits the Bengals and Bills against one another in a rematch of their canceled Monday Night Football matchup from a few weeks ago, as well as the Cowboys facing Brock Purdy and the 49ers with the shortest point spread of the weekend.
Buffalo has stretched to being 5.5-point favorites with a total at 48, while the Cowboys are 3.5-point underdogs in San Francisco, and the point total is set at 46.5.
Without further delay, we present our best bet card for the Sunday doubleheader during the second round of the NFL postseason.
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Bills -5.5 over Bengals
Best Available Odds: -110 at Caesars
Buffalo opened as 3.5-point favorites before the line shifted in their favor, and the spread now rests firmly in what Bill Simmons would call the ‘Vegas zone’ between four and six.
The Bills have a significant advantage in the trenches against the Bengals, who rank 30th in the NFL in win rates for both run-stop plays on defense and pass-blocking opportunities on offense. Playoff football emphasizes the line of scrimmage, and this bodes well for Buffalo.
The postseason records for both quarterbacks are impressive, and this game has more on the line than a normal matchup between division winners in the conference playoff bracket. This emotionally charged game will favor the home team, who will stave off a late rally from the Bengals to cover this number and book their place in the AFC title game.
Bengals @ Bills UNDER 49.5
Best Available Odds: -110 at FanDuel
The betting markets reflect that a majority of the bets placed and money wagered are on the side of the point total going over. That has not stopped the number from dropping a point lower than when it opened earlier this week. In situations like this, our general strategy is to go with the line movement and bet against the herd.
The Bengals gained less than 250 yards of offense per game in their meetings with Baltimore over the last two weeks and have cooled significantly on offense since a late-season surge.
Buffalo is a frightening offense to bet against after ripping off four straight 30-point games to close their season and begin the playoffs. If the Bengals’ defense can break that streak, then this under play stands a great chance.
The weather in Buffalo may also hinder offensive performance for a couple of teams that ranked in the top seven passing offenses in the NFL, and we will be on the under Sunday afternoon.
Cowboys @ 49ers: OVER 46
Best Available Odds: -110 at BetRivers
Both of these teams enter this matchup on impressive scoring streaks that include decisive victories last weekend in which they combined for 72 points. The defenses for both Dallas and San Francisco ranked in the top five in opponent scoring this season and have gotten a lot of media attention but will be tested as much on Sunday as they have during any game this season.
San Francisco allowed 23 points to Seattle last week and also has the hard-to-explain recent blemish of allowing Jarrett Stidham to lead the Raiders to 34 points during Week 17 in Vegas. If anything, these have proven that the highly touted 49ers’ defense is vulnerable at times which Dallas may be primed to capitalize on.
Dak Prescott, for all his flaws, has thrown 13 touchdown passes in the Cowboys’ last five games. Even if he continues to add to his league-leading 15 interceptions this season, that should only give Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ offense better scoring opportunities themselves. We like the over in the final game of the Divisional round on Sunday.
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