3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back on July 20: Misiorowski, deGrom, and Flaherty All Have the Edge

Monday’s MLB slate is loaded with strikeout upside, and three starters stand out above the rest. Jacob Misiorowski has been nearly untouchable since returning from the All-Star break, Jacob deGrom is still striking out a hitter an inning in a pitcher’s park, and Jack Flaherty has quietly turned into one of the most reliable strikeout arms against a Cubs lineup with real holes in it.

Here are three strikeout props worth targeting tonight, broken down so you understand exactly why the numbers point to the over in each spot.

Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-149ish)

Misiorowski gets the ball for Milwaukee against the Mets on Monday, and the underlying numbers are almost absurd: a 1.62 ERA and 167 strikeouts in just 111 innings this season, a strikeout rate that ranks among the best in baseball. Over his last three starts he’s punched out 11, 10, and 8 hitters — three straight games clearing this 8.5 line, and two of them by a wide margin.

The matchup only helps his case. New York’s lineup is banged up, with Mark Vientos out, which strips away one of the Mets’ more disciplined bats and leaves a lineup more prone to chasing Misiorowski’s swing-and-miss stuff. Given his workload (111 innings, 167 Ks — a K/9 near 13.5) and a Mets order that’s had trouble squaring him up in the past, 9-plus strikeouts is well within reach again.

Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-154ish)

DeGrom draws the White Sox at Globe Life Field, and while Texas’s home park can be a bit more hitter-friendly with the roof open, it’s closed for Monday’s game — a meaningful boost for a strikeout-heavy fly-ball avoider like deGrom. He’s sitting at a 10.9 K/9 on the season, and his last three outings have all cleared this number: 7, 9, and 8 strikeouts.

Chicago’s lineup gives him even more margin. The White Sox have historically struggled against deGrom’s mix of a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, and this current roster doesn’t project any better. It’s a lower-scoring offense overall, which tends to mean quicker at-bats and fewer deep counts working in the pitcher’s favor — exactly the recipe that’s had deGrom stacking strikeouts all season.

Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106ish)

Flaherty gets a Wrigley Field start against the Cubs, and this is the softest number of the three plays. He’s running a 10.7 K/9 this season and has cleared this line in each of his last three starts — 9, 5, and 6 strikeouts, with two comfortably over and the third right at the number.

The individual matchups are where this pick really sharpens. Cubs regular Seiya Suzuki is 0-for-8 in his career against Flaherty, and another Chicago bat has gone 0-for-9 lifetime against him as well — two hitters near the top of the order who simply haven’t been able to solve his stuff. That kind of history against multiple regulars in the same lineup is exactly the profile that pushes a strikeout total past the number. At odds close to even money, this is the value play of the trio.

Lock These In

All three of these pitchers are trending in the same direction — missing bats at a rate that’s outpacing their strikeout lines, against matchups that play right into their strengths. If you’re building a card around swing-and-miss stuff tonight, start here and check the live MLB odds before locking anything in, since strikeout numbers can move as lineups get finalized.

• Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-149ish)
• Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-154ish)
• Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106ish)

Each of these arms has cleared their number in recent outings, and tonight’s matchups only reinforce the trend. Get your numbers locked in before first pitch.