3 College Football Best Bets for Saturday, October 26: Pavia Poised to Pull Another Upset?

Week 9 of the college football season is here, and our industry expert can get you ready for all the action. This piece includes 3 best bets for Saturday, October 26th! Best of luck with your plays!

Texas Longhorns vs Vanderbilt Commodores

Texas was #1 in the country heading into last week’s contest with #5 Georgia. Hopes were high for the Longhorns to make a statement at home against one of the best teams in the SEC. Unfortunately, the Longhorns fell behind 23-0 at the half and needed to pull out all the stops to get back into the game.

They scored 15 unanswered points in the 3rd quarter but after a Trevor Etienne 1-yard touchdown plunge, there was to be no more scoring. The 30-15 loss stung and now they head to Nashville to take on a Vandy team that already has one of the biggest upsets of the season when they knocked off Alabama earlier this season.

Vanderbilt is currently on a 3-game winning streak that began with that upset win over Alabama. They handled a tough Kentucky team on the road 2 weeks ago, winning 20-13. Last week, they snuck out a 24-14 win over 2-4 Ball State at home.

The game was tied heading into the 4th quarter. Luckily, the defense hunkered down and blanked the Cardinals in that 4th quarter. They continued to be strong on 3rd down as they went 9-16 on their 3rd down opportunities.

Best Bet: Vanderbilt +18.5

Vanderbilt has proven that they are now not a bottom feeding team in the SEC. The win over Kentucky was extremely impressive after the emotional win over Bama the week prior. The close game last week could have been because they were looking ahead to this Texas matchup.

We expect the Longhorns to come out angry and looking to make a statement after their loss last week. However, this Vandy team will not be easy to do so against. We like Vanderbilt to at least keep it close enough to cover here at home.

Key Trends:

• Texas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in October.
• Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the SEC.
• Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
• Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the underdog.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Oregon Ducks

The newly minted #1 team in the country, the Oregon Ducks will host #20 Illinois in a are afternoon matchup at Autzen Stadium. Illinois is fresh off a 21-7 victory over #24 Michigan last week. They also have another ranked win over then #19 Kansas and their lone loss came at #9 Penn State in a tough 21-7 game.

In the loss to PSU, Illinois was outgained on the ground 239 to 34. Toss in the 2 turnovers by Illinois to the 0 by PSU and it is surprising this game was even within 2 scores.  Luke Altmyer has been strong all season under center but it has been the other side of the ball that has helped Illinois to this 6-1 mark. They have been holding opponents to under 19ppg which is good enough for 36^th in the country.

Oregon used their early scares against Idaho and Boise to seemingly wake up and play to their full potential going forward. Since those first 2 games, Oregon has been winning by an average of 22.6ppg. It would be even higher but they defeated #2 Ohio State by a single point in one of the best games to date this season.

Veteran Dillon Gabriel has this Ducks’ offense humming with over 300 yards per game through the air. They are 19^th on 3^rd down conversions and the 8 touchdowns by Jordan James on the ground leads the team.

Best Bet: Illinois +21.5

Illinois is not as good as many believe they are. The win over Michigan is not that impressive as Michigan should not have been in the Top 25 to begin with. They hung tight with Penn State on the road, despite the overwhelming yardage disparity but the rest of their wins are underwhelming.

All that said, we still like this Illinois team to hang around a bit with Oregon. It will be an early kickoff and the Oregon crowd will not be as raucous as usual. The 3 touchdowns plus spread here is going to be just a bit too high.

Key Trends:

• Illinois is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
• Illinois is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog.
• Oregon is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the favorite.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen

What a unique matchup we are in store for early on Saturday afternoon this week. The #12 ranked 6-1 Fighting Irish of Notre Dame face the undefeated (6-0) #24 ranked Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The Irish are playing to expectations, but this Navy team has surprised many up to this point. They have been winning games by an average of 25.2ppg.

Now we do need to take that with a grain of salt as the only team over .500 that they have faced was Memphis. They only trailed by 7 points in that contest and ultimately won 56-44. In Typical Navy fashion, they are averaging 274.8 yards per game on the ground which is 7th best in the country. They are throwing a bit and have averaged just over 160 yards per game through the air.

Notre Dame has shaken off their upset loss to Northern Illinois in week 2 by rattling off 5 straight wins. In those wins, they ae decimating opponents by an average of 30.2ppg. In those wins, they picked up their 2nd win over a ranked opponent.

They took down then #15 Louisville in a game they were outgained on the ground and through the air. The 3 turnovers they forced were paramount in the win.
We would love to see the Midshipmen pull off this historic upset over Notre Dame.

Best Bet: Notre Dame -13.5

They have not defeated them since 2016 and trail ND in the series 80-13-1. The problem that Navy is going to have is playing from behind.

Seven points is the most they have trailed by all season but have yet to face an offense as capable as this Notre Dame one. We like the Irish to get out and front early and pull away in the 2nd half.

Key Trends:

• ND is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.
• ND is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
• ND is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in October.
• Navy is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.