2 NFL Best Bets for Sunday, December 15: Downs Should Be Back for Indy!

We’re counting down the days of the NFL season as teams are fighting for playoff contention here in Week 15. The bye weeks are over, so we’ll have our full slate once again. We’ll take a look at a few matchups for some teams in the hunt below.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

Personally, these are two frustrating teams to watch for me. I think the Broncos are a bit of a paper tiger, and while they have performed better than preseason expectations, I don’t think they are deserving of their 8-5 record. They’ve benefited tremendously from an easy schedule and really only have a handful of good wins on their season.

The Colts have been equally as frustrating, simply because of the quarterback play. Anthony Richardson was benched (Flacco wasn’t good in his stint) and then re-established as the QB of this team.

Despite this, he hasn’t shown a ton of improvement in his accuracy and decision making throughout the season. There have been quite a few untimely drops by Colts receivers that have hurt the team, but they live and die by Richardson. 

Best Bet: Colts +4 -110

The action has been towards the Colts in this one and many markets have moved down from +4.5 to +3.5, however there are quite a few +4s out there. This game is a huge leverage spot for the playoffs where a Broncos win could effectively eliminate the Colts.

While I don’t love the matchup for the Colts, I think this number is too high. The market rating on Denver is inflated right now and I don’t think I would have them above -3 hosting the Colts. CB Riley Moss still hasn’t practiced this week and it’s not looking great for his availability on Sunday. His backup Levi Wallace was abysmal on MNF against Cleveland.

The positive spin for Denver would be that the Colts rely so heavily on their rushing attack and defending the run is a strength for Denver. Without Moss opposite Pat Surtain the Broncos will be extremely exposed.

WR Josh Downs should be back for the Colts (full participant in yesterday’s practice) which is a much-needed presence alongside Michael Pittman. I expect one of them to have a big game, depending on how Denver uses Surtain in this matchup. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Tampa goes on the road to face the Chargers in this matchup coming off an easy Week 14 win against the Raiders. The Chargers return home after two straight road games where they lost the second at Kansas City 19-17. The big news here is Justin Herbert’s health.

He’s dealing with both an ankle injury and a leg contusion that was clearly bothering him in the second half. Herbert isn’t known as a running quarterback, but his mobility is important, and we’ve seen what he looks like when he’s compromised before.

Tampa Bay’s pass rush has quietly become quite effective at this point in the season, and I’m concerned that Herbert will take multiple sacks in this one. Ladd McConkey did return to practice for the Chargers but isn’t definite to go on Sunday. TE Will Dissly and WR Jalen Reager will be out. 

Best Bet: Buccaneers +3 (-115) *0.5u

Herbert needs his receivers that can create separation to take advantage of a weak Tampa secondary that will be without Antoine Winfield. This game is sitting at +3 for Tampa Bay and has already started to move off the key number.

There are juiced 3’s or expensive 2.5’s in market for Tampa Bay. My opinion here is to take a starter position on Tampa Bay at -3 (-115/-120). If Ladd McConkey ends up being ruled in, we could see some game day money scoop up the cheap -3’s for Los Angeles. If he’s ruled out we can take a half unit bet on the Bucs into the matchup and assess what Herbert’s health looks like in real time.