2 NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, March 4: Fade Johnson Against the Grizz

2 NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, March 4

Ready to start your week off with some NBA profits? Check out our 2 player prop picks for Monday, March 4. Best of luck, folks!

We start off the new week with a six-game slate in the NBA tonight, with a couple of teams on a back-to-back. We’ll dive into a couple of games and look to extract some value.

Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets

The Nets look to continue their home success over the weekend, beating the Atlanta Hawks twice in a row. The Grizzlies come to Brooklyn after a similar scheduling spot saw them play two straight games in Portland.

The Nets got some hot shooting from Cam Johnson over the weekend as he went 4-7 and 7-11 from three in his last two games against Atlanta. Johnson’s point total is sitting at 15.5 with juice to the over in this one and I think it’s a good time to try to fade the young forward.

Cameron Johnson UNDER 16.5 points (-120) DraftKings

In his last 10 games, Johnson has seen his point total at around 13 and I think the hot shooting is influencing this figure too much. 

Atlanta is the worst defense in the league in terms of defensive rating and they also play at the fourth fastest pace, leading to more shot opportunities.

Memphis is a step in class up on defense, rating in the top ten on dRTG and playing at a more medium pace, more in line with the Nets’ average slow-medium pace.

I think we’re seeing an overreaction in the market and Cam Johnson’s shot attempts/minutes could decrease tonight in a more dampened scoring environment.

The Nets find themselves as 9.5-point favorites as the Grizzlies continue to fall apart, especially on offense. I’ll take my chances fading an inflated number in a potential blowout game. 

Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz

The Wizards are in free fall, growing their losing streak to 14 games with a loss to the Clippers on Friday. The Wizards end their three-game west coast swing at Utah, taking on a Utah team that has been surprisingly solid at home, despite their overall record of seven games under .500.

The Wizards are the second-worst team in the league in terms of net rating and struggle tremendously on the boards. Nonetheless, someone has to grab rebounds for this team and I think Marvin Bagley is the answer.

Bagley has bounced around in his young career but is finally finding more consistent minutes for the Wizards. He’s playing center in a forward-heavy Wizards lineup, but has been on the receiving hand of quite a few Tyus Jones assists as the Wizards have transitioned into a more pick-and-roll-heavy offense with the ball in Jones’ hands.

Marvin Bagley OVER 22.5 Pts + Rebs (-105) BetMGM

The Jazz are about a league-average team in terms of rebounding, defense, and pace, so I think it’s fair to expect that Bagely won’t be pushed around too much in the paint.

I like Bagley to go over 22.5 P+R at -105, on a number that I expected to look more like 24.5, given Bagley’s scoring output with Washington. As long as he’s on the floor for more than 25 minutes, Bagely has easily cleared this number in all games he’s played with the Wizards.

I’m playing Marvin Bagley OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-105) Draftkings and also taking a sprinkle on Bagley Double Double at +220 (FanDuel).

Max Gilson

Sports Betting Contributor

Max is a seasoned sports analyst from New York who is known for his work on The Noise podcast. He brings a unique perspective on sports betting to the table, one that focuses on a quantitative approach and finding the best price. He can be found on X @max_thenoise