The NHL’s stingiest team walks into Scotiabank Arena to face a Toronto club that has lost four straight and cannot find a save.
Quick take:
- Pick: Minnesota Wild on the moneyline
- Why: Jesper Wallstedt and the league’s best defense meet a Toronto goaltending situation that has been leaking three-plus goals a night.
- The number to watch: Wallstedt’s .925 save percentage against Sergei Bobrovsky’s .881
Minnesota (13-3-4) sits atop the Central Division with 30 points and has earned a point in nine straight games, going 7-0-2 in that stretch. The Wild have also won six consecutive road games, the second-longest active run in the league. Toronto (8-10-2) is seventh in the Atlantic Division with 18 points and has lost four in a row, a skid that has put coach Jim Hiller’s group under real pressure.
Thursday’s puck drop at 7:00 p.m. ET is the first meeting between these teams this season. The two split last year’s series, with Minnesota winning 6-3 in Toronto in January and the Maple Leafs taking a 4-2 decision in Minnesota in March.
Wild Favored as the Market Leans on the Crease
The betting market has settled on Minnesota as a clear favorite despite the road setting. Current lines have the Wild around -159 on the moneyline with Toronto at +156, a puck line of Wild -1.5 at +150, and a game total of 6.5 goals priced close to even on both sides. That total looks a touch high for a game featuring the league’s best goals-against average, which is where the over/under conversation gets interesting.
| Thursday, November 12 at 7:10 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Minnesota Wild | 
-1.5 (130) |
-170 | 
O 5.5 (-125) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs |
+1.5 (-190) | 
+135 |
U 5.5 (-105) |
Recent Form
The form data below tells the story of two teams moving in opposite directions: Minnesota is 7-1-2 over its last 10 and allowing 1.9 goals a game in that stretch, while Toronto is 4-6-0 and giving up 3.3.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | @Montréal Canadiens | -1.5 / 4.5 | Won 1-2 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | -1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 3-4 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 7, 2026 | San Jose Sharks | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 4-1 | Won / Under |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @Philadelphia Flyers | -1.5 / 6 | Won 2-4 | Won / Push |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @Washington Capitals | -2.5 / 6.5 | Won 1-5 | Won / Under |
| Oct 30, 2026 | New York Islanders | -2.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-4 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @Utah Mammoth | +1.5 / 6.5 | Won 1-3 | Won / Under |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @Seattle Kraken | -2.5 / 7.5 | Won 1-5 | Won / Under |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Calgary Flames | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 2-1 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Edmonton Oilers | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-3 | Won / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | Colorado Avalanche | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-6 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 9, 2026 | New Jersey Devils | +1.5 / 4.5 | Lost 0-4 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Montréal Canadiens | +2.5 / 6.5 | Lost 2-4 | Won / Under |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Utah Mammoth | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 2-3 | Won / Under |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Vancouver Canucks | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-4 | Won / Under |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @Seattle Kraken | +1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 5-4 | Won / Over |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Calgary Flames | +2.5 / 7.5 | Lost 5-2 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Edmonton Oilers | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 2-7 | Won / Over |
| Oct 22, 2026 | New York Rangers | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 5-4 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @Columbus Blue Jackets | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-6 | Won / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Minnesota Wild | @Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 2-4 | Lost / Under |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | @Minnesota Wild | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-6 | Lost / Over |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | @Minnesota Wild | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 1-3 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Minnesota Wild | @Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 2-1 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Minnesota Wild | @Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 | Lost 3-4 | Won / — |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Toronto Maple Leafs | @Minnesota Wild | -1.5 | Won 7-4 | Won / — |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Toronto Maple Leafs | @Minnesota Wild | -1.5 / 6 | Won 2-1 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 25, 2022 | Minnesota Wild | @Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 / 6 | Lost 3-4 | Lost / Over |
| Feb 25, 2022 | Toronto Maple Leafs | @Minnesota Wild | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-1 | Won / Under |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Minnesota Wild | @Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 / 6 | Won 4-3 | Won / Over |
Wallstedt’s Breakout Meets Toronto’s Goalie Problem
Everything about this matchup starts between the pipes. Jesper Wallstedt has been the story of Minnesota’s season, carrying a 12-2-3 record, a 1.93 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage. Hockey Reference credits him with 15.1 goals saved above average, and the Wild lead the NHL in goals allowed at 2.2 per game. That is the product of a goalie playing at an elite level and a team that holds opponents to 25.8 shots a night.
Minnesota has done it without Filip Gustavsson, who is out with a hip injury, and without defenseman Brock Faber, who is also sidelined. Quinn Hughes has anchored the blue line with six goals and 21 assists, and Kirill Kaprizov leads the offense with 17 goals and 32 points in 20 games. He scored the overtime winner on the power play against Montreal on Tuesday, the 15th overtime goal of his NHL career and a franchise record.
Toronto’s Sergei Bobrovsky has a .881 save percentage and has allowed three or more goals in all but one of his starts this season.
That is a rough spot for a team that signed the 38-year-old to a three-year deal after trading Joseph Woll to Philadelphia. Bobrovsky is 3-8-2 with a 3.47 goals-against average and has lost five straight. Anthony Stolarz (5-2-0, .908) could get the start instead, and that would be a modest upgrade rather than a fix, since the Leafs rank 27th in shots allowed per game at 29.5.
It is not all one-way traffic. Toronto’s offense is legitimate, ranking 12th at 3.35 goals per game, and its power play is clicking at 28.1 percent, fifth in the league. Auston Matthews has 11 goals and 28 points and has put at least three shots on net in four straight games. William Nylander has six goals over his last 10 games, and young winger Easton Cowan has been a steady secondary piece with seven goals and 16 points.
The problem for the Leafs is the injury list. Morgan Rielly, Colton Sissons, Kirill Marchenko, Max Domi and Miles Wood are all listed out, which thins both the defense and the forward group. Minnesota’s penalty kill sits at 79 percent, so special teams is the one place Toronto can swing this game.
Taking the Wild straight up is the cleanest way to back this. If you are shopping for a price, a DraftKings promo code is a handy way to start with bonus bets, and the live NHL odds page shows how the numbers move before puck drop.
Prediction and Best Bet
Minnesota has the better goalie by a wide margin, the better defensive numbers, the better recent form and the better underlying chances, while Toronto is short-handed in the lineup and shaky in net. The Leafs will score because their top line and power play are good enough, but the Wild have been winning tight games all month and should get there again.
The pick:
- Prediction: Wild 4, Maple Leafs 2
- Best Bet: Wild on the moneyline
At roughly -159, the price is fair for a team that is 7-1-2 in its last 10 against a club that has not won in four games. Bet within your limits, and see the responsible gambling resources if you need them.
