Detroit has lost four straight and owns the league’s 28th-ranked penalty kill, and now it walks into a Florida power play that has been clicking at better than 24 percent.
Quick take:
- Pick: Over 5.5 goals
- Why: A leaky Detroit penalty kill and a shaky Detroit goalie meet a Florida power play that scores, with enough Red Wings firepower to answer back.
- The number to watch: Detroit’s 69.5 percent penalty kill, 28th in the NHL.
The Red Wings (7-9-3) arrive in Sunrise on Thursday night at Amerant Bank Arena after a 3-2 loss at St. Louis on Tuesday. They have dropped four in a row: a 4-2 loss in Tampa Bay, a 2-1 home loss to Vegas, a 4-0 loss at Colorado and then the Blues game. At 17 points, they sit eighth in the Atlantic and five points behind a wild-card spot.
The Panthers (10-7-2) are in better shape, holding the second wild-card spot with 22 points. They have been uneven lately, dropping road games in Washington and Boston before beating Columbus 4-1 on Tuesday. Captain Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand are still out with knee injuries, though both skated this week and coach Paul Maurice said he expects them back within two weeks.
Where the Market Has Florida and the Total
Florida is a clear home favorite, with moneylines sitting around Panthers -160 to -170 and Detroit at roughly +142 to +156 depending on the book. The puck line has Florida at -1.5 at plus money and Detroit at +1.5 near -167. The total is hanging between 5.5 and 6 goals, with the over priced as the heavier side at 5.5. That tells you the market expects a game with some scoring in it.
| Thursday, November 12 at 7:40 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Detroit Red Wings | 
+1.5 (-180) | 
+154 | 
O 6 (-105) |
| Florida Panthers | 
-1.5 (138) |
-180 |
U 5.5 (108) |
Recent Form
These two met just ten days ago in this same building, and Detroit won 5-3. The tables below show how each team has trended since and what the head-to-head record looks like.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | @St Louis Blues | +1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 3-2 | Won / Under |
| Nov 8, 2026 | @Colorado Avalanche | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-0 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 6, 2026 | Vegas Golden Knights | +1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 1-2 | Won / Under |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @Tampa Bay Lightning | +1.5 / 6 | Lost 4-2 | Lost / Push |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @Florida Panthers | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 3-5 | Won / Over |
| Oct 31, 2026 | St Louis Blues | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-5 | Won / Over |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Chicago Blackhawks | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 4-1 | Won / Under |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Edmonton Oilers | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 3-4 | Won / Over |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @Calgary Flames | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 4-1 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Vancouver Canucks | -2.5 / 6.5 | Won 2-5 | Won / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | @Columbus Blue Jackets | -1.5 / 4.5 | Won 1-4 | Won / Over |
| Nov 8, 2026 | @Boston Bruins | +1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 4-1 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 7, 2026 | @Washington Capitals | -1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 4-3 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Chicago Blackhawks | -3.5 / 6.5 | Won 5-3 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 3-5 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Winnipeg Jets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 5-2 | Won / Over |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @Winnipeg Jets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 1-5 | Won / Over |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Pittsburgh Penguins | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-0 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Ottawa Senators | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 5-1 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Seattle Kraken | -2.5 / 7.5 | Won 8-3 | Won / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Florida Panthers | @Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 3-5 | Lost / Over |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Florida Panthers | @Detroit Red Wings | +1.5 / 6.5 | Won 8-1 | Won / Over |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Florida Panthers | @Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 4-3 | Lost / Over |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Detroit Red Wings | @Florida Panthers | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 1-3 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Detroit Red Wings | @Florida Panthers | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 4-1 | Won / Under |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Florida Panthers | @Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 4-1 | Won / Under |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Detroit Red Wings | @Florida Panthers | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 2-1 | Lost / Under |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Florida Panthers | @Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 2-5 | Lost / Over |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Florida Panthers | @Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 | Won 3-2 | Lost / — |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Detroit Red Wings | @Florida Panthers | +1.5 | Lost 0-4 | Lost / — |
Why the Over Is the Play
Start with special teams. Florida’s power play is converting at about 24 percent, and its top unit features Matthew Tkachuk, who leads the team with 27 points, along with Seth Jones, who has 21. Detroit’s penalty kill is working at 69.5 percent, which ranks 28th in the league. Any time the Red Wings take a couple of minors, the Panthers should cash in more often than not.
Detroit’s goaltending is the other piece. John Gibson is expected to start, and he has a .860 save percentage and a 3.46 goals-against average this season, well below the .890 average for regular starters. He missed two games with a lower-body injury before returning Tuesday and allowing three goals on 33 shots against St. Louis.
Detroit has allowed 3.00 goals per game this season while killing penalties at just 69.5 percent.
Detroit can score too. Lucas Raymond leads the team with 18 points, Alex DeBrincat has 16, and Viktor Arvidsson has eight goals. The Red Wings put up five on Florida on Nov. 2, and that group still has the skill to find a way through Jacob Markstrom, who is sitting at roughly a .900 save percentage with a 2.56 goals-against average. Brady Tkachuk, with 10 goals, and Sam Reinhart, who has five goals and five assists over his last 10 games, will get their chances on the other end.
Florida scoring chances are not the issue. The Panthers are scoring 24 percent of the time on the power play and have beaten Detroit’s goalies already this season.
If you are looking to back the total, compare the number across apps and check the current DraftKings promo code offer before you place anything, since the line is split between 5.5 and 6.
Prediction and Best Bet
Florida’s home ice, better special teams, and edge in goal should be enough to win, but Detroit’s offense keeps it from being a blowout. Expect a game with a few power plays and goals at both ends.
The pick:
- Prediction: Panthers 4, Red Wings 3
- Best Bet: Over 5.5 goals
If you can find the number at 5.5, that is the sweet spot, because a 6-goal line turns a 4-2 result into a push. Between a poor penalty kill and a goalie struggling to stop pucks, the over has the clearest path.
